Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 08/11, 16:00
Prediction: Alverca B vs O Elvas
Team pages: Alverca B · O Elvas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Alverca B1.11
O Elvas1.31
1X2
Alverca B
Draw
O Elvas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Alverca B
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
O Elvas
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alverca B
2–2
O Elvas
(4 last)
- Alverca B2-1O Elvas
- O Elvas2-3Alverca B
- O Elvas2-1Alverca B
- Alverca B1-3O Elvas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alverca B 1507 · O Elvas 1547
| Alverca B | Draw | O Elvas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours O Elvas (rating 1507 vs 1547).
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alverca B | O Elvas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 63/38/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.6 | 1.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca B 2–0–2 O Elvas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Alverca B | 2-1 HT 2-1 | O Elvas |
| 02/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | O Elvas | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Alverca B |
| 09/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | O Elvas | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Alverca B |
| 10/11/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Alverca B | 1-3 HT 0-2 | O Elvas |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Marialvas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | O Elvas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Mortagua FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Oliveira Hospital | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Benfica e Castelo Branco | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 7 | AT Malveira | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 8 | Fatima | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | Naval 1893 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Alverca B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | GD Os Nazarenos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 5 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alverca B | O Elvas |
|---|---|---|
| Fazendense | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Naval 1893 | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Benfica e Castelo Branco | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| UD da Serra | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Comercio Industria | 5-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Serpa | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alverca B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/10 | AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Comercio Industria Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Serpa Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Alcochetense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
O Elvas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/10 | Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 11/10 | UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Moncarapachense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Comercio Industria Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Serpa Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alverca B vs O Elvas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an O Elvas win (40%). Probabilities: Alverca B 31%, draw 29%, O Elvas 40%.
How many goals are expected in Alverca B vs O Elvas?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Alverca B 1.11 · O Elvas 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Alverca B vs O Elvas?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.