Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 06/09, 18:00

Prediction: Cinfaes vs Beira Mar

Team pages: Beira Mar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Cinfaes1.37

Beira Mar0.96

1X2

45% 30% 25%

Cinfaes Draw Beira Mar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cinfaes 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDWWWW

Beira Mar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWWWDL

Head-to-head

Cinfaes 3–2–0 Beira Mar (5 last)

Beira Mar1-1Cinfaes
Cinfaes2-0Beira Mar
Cinfaes2-0Beira Mar
Beira Mar0-1Cinfaes
Cinfaes2-2Beira Mar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cinfaes 1595 · Beira Mar 1477

	Cinfaes	Draw	Beira Mar
Our model	45%	30%	25%
Market	45%	30%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cinfaes (rating 1595 vs 1477).
H2H favours Cinfaes: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cinfaes	Beira Mar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.6	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +2’	2.00	3.00	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cinfaes 3–2–0 Beira Mar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Beira Mar	1-1 HT 0-1	Cinfaes
01/12/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	2-0 HT 0-0	Beira Mar
29/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	2-0 HT 0-0	Beira Mar
16/02/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Beira Mar	0-1 HT 0-0	Cinfaes
06/10/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	2-2 HT 0-1	Beira Mar

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
2	AD Machico	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
3	AD Camacha	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Florgrade FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Cinfaes	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Salgueiros	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
7	FC Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
8	AD Castro Daire	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
9	AD Sanjoanense	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Uniao de Lamas	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	Beira Mar	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	Guarda Desportiva	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
14	UD Sousense	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cinfaes	Beira Mar
CD Gouveia	2-0 W	2-1 W
Uniao de Lamas	1-0 W	4-0 W
FC Alpendorada	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Beira Mar (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cinfaes

DDWWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	UD Sousense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
18/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	5-2	3	2	W
12/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
04/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
22/03	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
15/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
08/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	7	10	W
01/03	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
22/02	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
15/02	Vila Mea Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	11	5	D

Beira Mar

LLDLDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
16/08	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
18/04	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
12/04	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	4-0	8	6	W
04/04	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/03	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
15/03	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
08/03	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/03	SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
22/02	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cinfaes vs Beira Mar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cinfaes win (45%). Probabilities: Cinfaes 45%, draw 30%, Beira Mar 25%.

How many goals are expected in Cinfaes vs Beira Mar?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Cinfaes 1.37 · Beira Mar 0.96), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Cinfaes vs Beira Mar?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.