Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 06/09, 18:00

Prediction: Rebordosa vs Vila Mea

Team pages: Rebordosa · Vila Mea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Rebordosa1.25

Vila Mea0.74

1X2

48% 30% 22%

Rebordosa Draw Vila Mea

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Rebordosa 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWLLL

Vila Mea 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDDWD

Head-to-head

Rebordosa 1–2–1 Vila Mea (4 last)

Vila Mea1-0Rebordosa
Rebordosa1-1Vila Mea
Vila Mea0-1Rebordosa
Rebordosa0-0Vila Mea

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rebordosa 1446 · Vila Mea 1496

	Rebordosa	Draw	Vila Mea
Our model	47%	32%	21%
Market	49%	29%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vila Mea (rating 1446 vs 1496).
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rebordosa	Vila Mea
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	22/67/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	5.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.10

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +2’	1.85	3.10	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rebordosa 1–2–1 Vila Mea

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Vila Mea	1-0 HT 1-0	Rebordosa
29/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Rebordosa	1-1 HT 1-0	Vila Mea
03/03/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Vila Mea	0-1 HT 0-0	Rebordosa
05/11/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Rebordosa	0-0 HT 0-0	Vila Mea

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Tirsense	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Montalegre	3	1	2	0	4	2	5
3	Braga B	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
4	Limianos	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Vila Mea	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	Braganca	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	CD Celoricense	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	AD Ponte da Barca	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	SC Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Chaves B	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
11	Maia Lidador	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
12	Rebordosa	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
13	Brito SC	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
14	Futebol Clube de Vinhais	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rebordosa

WLLLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Chaves B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	FC Tirsense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
31/05	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
22/05	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
17/05	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
10/05	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
03/05	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/04	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-2	3	14	L
18/04	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-2	1	0	L
12/04	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	7	W

Vila Mea

DLDLWLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Limianos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	AD Ponte da Barca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/04	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
04/04	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	2-3	6	7	L
22/03	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
15/03	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
08/03	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
01/03	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
22/02	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rebordosa vs Vila Mea?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rebordosa win (48%). Probabilities: Rebordosa 48%, draw 30%, Vila Mea 22%.

How many goals are expected in Rebordosa vs Vila Mea?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Rebordosa 1.25 · Vila Mea 0.74), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Rebordosa vs Vila Mea?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.