Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 12/09, 00:15
Prediction: Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Team pages: Defensa y Justicia · Gimnasia Mendoza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Defensa y Justicia1.48
Gimnasia Mendoza1.21
1X2
Defensa y Justicia
Draw
Gimnasia Mendoza
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Defensa y Justicia
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Gimnasia Mendoza
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensa y Justicia
0–1
Gimnasia Mendoza
(1 last)
- Gimnasia Mendoza2-1Defensa y Justicia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensa y Justicia 1491 · Gimnasia Mendoza 1541
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Gimnasia Mendoza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia Mendoza (rating 1491 vs 1541).
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensa y Justicia | Gimnasia Mendoza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensa y Justicia 0–0–1 Gimnasia Mendoza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Gimnasia Mendoza | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Defensa y Justicia |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | CA Independiente | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Newell's | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Boca Juniors | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Lanus | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Deportivo Riestra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 12 | Platense | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Estudiantes LP | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/05 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
Gimnasia Mendoza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 31/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 09/08 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/05 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensa y Justicia win (42%). Probabilities: Defensa y Justicia 42%, draw 29%, Gimnasia Mendoza 29%.
How many goals are expected in Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Defensa y Justicia 1.48 · Gimnasia Mendoza 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.