Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 13/09, 19:45
Prediction: Sarmiento vs Belgrano
Team pages: Sarmiento · Belgrano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Sarmiento1.05
Belgrano1.24
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
Belgrano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Belgrano
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
1–3–2
Belgrano
(6 last)
- Belgrano4-0Sarmiento
- Sarmiento0-0Belgrano
- Belgrano4-1Sarmiento
- Sarmiento0-0Belgrano
- Belgrano0-0Sarmiento
- Belgrano1-2Sarmiento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1516 · Belgrano 1541
| Sarmiento | Draw | Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | 29% | 32% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Belgrano: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 1–3–2 Belgrano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Sarmiento |
| 04/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
| 20/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Sarmiento |
| 25/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
| 04/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 20/11/16 Argentina Superliga | Belgrano | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Sarmiento |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Sarmiento | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| 4 | Atlético Tucumán | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | CA Tigre | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | River Plate | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Huracan | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Barracas Central | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Banfield | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 7 |
| 13 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 5 |
| 15 | Racing Club | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Huracan | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Atlético Tucumán | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Banfield | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Argentinos Jrs | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| CA Tigre | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sarmiento (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/07 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 03/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs Belgrano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Belgrano win (39%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 29%, draw 32%, Belgrano 39%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs Belgrano?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Sarmiento 1.05 · Belgrano 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs Belgrano?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.