Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 09/08, 20:00
Prediction: Puebla (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Team pages: Puebla (W) · Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Puebla (W)0.58
Chivas Guadalajara (W)2.32
1X2
Puebla (W)
Draw
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Puebla (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puebla (W)
0–2–4
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
(6 last)
- Puebla (W)1-3Chivas Guadalajara (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)1-1Puebla (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)3-0Puebla (W)
- Puebla (W)0-1Chivas Guadalajara (W)
- Puebla (W)1-1Chivas Guadalajara (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)2-0Puebla (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puebla (W) 1409 · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1536
| Puebla (W) | Draw | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 7% | 17% | 76% |
| Market | 8% | 15% | 77% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (W) (rating 1409 vs 1536).
- H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara (W): 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puebla (W) | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 3.1 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 2.1 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.3 | 1.7 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla (W) 0–2–4 Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Puebla (W) | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
| 12/10/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Puebla (W) |
| 31/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Puebla (W) |
| 07/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Puebla (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
| 26/01/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Puebla (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
| 24/07/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Puebla (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Liga MX, Women 26/27, Apertura, Group B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Pachuca (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Atlas (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 5 | Tijuana (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | Necaxa (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | Unam Pumas (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 8 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 9 | Puebla (W) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Puebla (W) | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL (W) | 0-8 L | 2-2 D |
| Queretaro (W) | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Juarez FC (W) | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Mazatlan FC (W) | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puebla (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-6 | 0-8 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 05/04 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 01/04 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 28/03 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/03 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/03 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 22/02 | Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 17/02 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/05 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 21/04 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 06/04 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 03/04 | Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 30/03 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 15/03 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puebla (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara (W) win (77%). Probabilities: Puebla (W) 8%, draw 16%, Chivas Guadalajara (W) 77%.
How many goals are expected in Puebla (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Puebla (W) 0.58 · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 2.32), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Puebla (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.