Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 17/08, 01:00

Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Atletico San Luis (W)

Team pages: Chivas Guadalajara (W) · Atletico San Luis (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Chivas Guadalajara (W)2.56

Atletico San Luis (W)0.56

1X2

80% 14% 6%

Chivas Guadalajara (W) Draw Atletico San Luis (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Chivas Guadalajara (W) 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDDWLWW

Atletico San Luis (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Chivas Guadalajara (W) 5–1–0 Atletico San Luis (W) (6 last)

Chivas Guadalajara (W)2-0Atletico San Luis (W)
Atletico San Luis (W)0-2Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)3-1Atletico San Luis (W)
Atletico San Luis (W)0-3Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)4-1Atletico San Luis (W)
Atletico San Luis (W)1-1Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1557 · Atletico San Luis (W) 1522

	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	Draw	Atletico San Luis (W)
Our model	80%	15%	5%
Market	81%	13%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	Atletico San Luis (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.00

2 (+2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:43 +2’	1.14	7.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 5–1–0 Atletico San Luis (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico San Luis (W)
14/07/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Atletico San Luis (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
07/02/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	3-1 HT 2-1	Atletico San Luis (W)
20/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Atletico San Luis (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
19/01/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	4-1 HT 3-0	Atletico San Luis (W)
28/08/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Atletico San Luis (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America (W)	2	2	0	0	13	0	6
2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	Unam Pumas (W)	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
4	Atletico San Luis (W)	2	1	0	1	3	5	3
5	Pachuca (W)	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
6	Atlas (W)	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
7	Tijuana (W)	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
8	Necaxa (W)	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
9	Puebla (W)	2	0	0	2	1	12	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	Atletico San Luis (W)
Puebla (W)	4-1 W	2-0 W
Toluca (W)	1-1 D	1-4 L
Tigres UANL (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
Mazatlan FC (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Tijuana (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Monterrey (W)	0-0 D	0-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chivas Guadalajara (W)

DDWDDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
03/08	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	3-1	7	4	W
04/05	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
01/05	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
25/04	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	8	0	D
21/04	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
06/04	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	2-2	0	2	D
03/04	Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
30/03	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
21/03	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Atletico San Luis (W)

LWDLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
03/08	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-4	6	3	L
25/04	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
06/04	Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
02/04	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	3-2	9	7	W
29/03	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	2-1	5	7	W
23/03	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-2	8	6	L
15/03	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/03	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/02	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-5	0-6	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Atletico San Luis (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara (W) win (80%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara (W) 80%, draw 14%, Atletico San Luis (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Atletico San Luis (W)?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Chivas Guadalajara (W) 2.56 · Atletico San Luis (W) 0.56), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Atletico San Luis (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.