Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 11/08, 02:00

Prediction: Toluca (W) vs Juarez FC (W)

Team pages: Toluca (W) · Juarez FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Toluca (W)2.05

Juarez FC (W)1.21

1X2

56% 24% 21%

Toluca (W) Draw Juarez FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Toluca (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWLLW

Juarez FC (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWDLW

Head-to-head

Toluca (W) 2–3–1 Juarez FC (W) (6 last)

Toluca (W)3-2Juarez FC (W)
Juarez FC (W)0-0Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)3-1Juarez FC (W)
Juarez FC (W)2-1Toluca (W)
Juarez FC (W)0-0Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)1-1Juarez FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toluca (W) 1534 · Juarez FC (W) 1536

	Toluca (W)	Draw	Juarez FC (W)
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Toluca (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toluca (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.5	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.7	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.70

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
22:22 +1’	1.61	3.70	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca (W) 2–3–1 Juarez FC (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	3-2 HT 2-2	Juarez FC (W)
18/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Toluca (W)
05/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	3-1 HT 0-0	Juarez FC (W)
06/10/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Toluca (W)
31/03/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Toluca (W)
13/08/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Juarez FC (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Liga MX, Women 26/27, Apertura, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monterrey (W)	2	2	0	5	2	6
2	Tigres UANL (W)	1	1	0	8	0	3
3	Leon (W)	1	1	0	5	2	3
4	Toluca (W)	1	1	0	4	1	3
5	Juarez FC (W)	1	1	0	1	0	3
6	Atlante (W)	2	1	1	2	3	3
7	Santos Laguna (W)	2	1	1	2	4	3
8	Cruz Azul (W)	2	1	1	3	11	3
9	Queretaro (W)	2	0	2	2	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toluca (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Club America (W)	3-4 L	2-3 L
Chivas Guadalajara (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
Necaxa (W)	5-1 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Juarez FC (W) (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toluca (W)

WWDLDWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	4-1	5	3	W
10/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-2	3-4	4	1	L
08/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-4	1-7	5	1	L
04/05	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
01/05	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
25/04	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	8	0	D
05/04	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-4	6	4	L
01/04	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	3-3	9	4	D
28/03	Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
21/03	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	5-1	13	5	W

Juarez FC (W)

WWLWDDWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
30/04	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
25/04	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
21/04	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
06/04	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
02/04	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	6-0	5	6	W
30/03	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-2	11	4	L
22/03	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
15/03	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	2-0	11	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toluca (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Toluca (W) 56%, draw 24%, Juarez FC (W) 21%.

How many goals are expected in Toluca (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Toluca (W) 2.05 · Juarez FC (W) 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Toluca (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.