Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 22/09, 01:00

Prediction: Leon (W) vs Juarez FC (W)

Team pages: Leon (W) · Juarez FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Leon (W)1.41

Juarez FC (W)1.39

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Leon (W) Draw Juarez FC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Leon (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWLWW

Juarez FC (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Leon (W) 2–1–3 Juarez FC (W) (6 last)

Juarez FC (W)1-0Leon (W)
Leon (W)3-2Juarez FC (W)
Juarez FC (W)4-1Leon (W)
Leon (W)1-0Juarez FC (W)
Leon (W)1-1Juarez FC (W)
Juarez FC (W)1-0Leon (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leon (W) 1497 · Juarez FC (W) 1542

	Leon (W)	Draw	Juarez FC (W)
Our model	37%	28%	36%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juarez FC (W) (rating 1497 vs 1542).
H2H favours Juarez FC (W): 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leon (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +11’	2.45	3.30	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon (W) 2–1–3 Juarez FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Leon (W)
14/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Leon (W)	3-2 HT 2-1	Juarez FC (W)
03/02/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	Leon (W)
20/07/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Leon (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Juarez FC (W)
03/02/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Leon (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Juarez FC (W)
05/10/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Leon (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monterrey (W)	8	7	0	1	33	9	21
2	Tigres UANL (W)	7	6	0	1	21	6	18
3	Toluca (W)	7	5	1	1	17	8	16
4	Juarez FC (W)	7	5	0	2	7	5	15
5	Leon (W)	7	4	0	3	15	10	12
6	Cruz Azul (W)	7	4	0	3	11	18	12
7	Santos Laguna (W)	7	3	0	4	9	16	9
8	Queretaro (W)	7	2	0	5	9	18	6
9	Atlante (W)	7	1	0	6	4	11	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leon (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Pachuca (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Toluca (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Tigres UANL (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leon (W) (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leon (W)

DLLWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
08/09	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-1	5-2	9	3	W
29/08	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
22/08	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	3-2	4	3	W
18/08	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
11/08	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
02/08	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-2	5-2	4	3	W
25/04	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
06/04	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-3	4-5	5	3	L
01/04	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	3-3	7	4	D

Juarez FC (W)

WDLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
08/09	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
30/08	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
23/08	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	3-2	8	4	W
16/08	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
11/08	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
02/08	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
30/04	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
25/04	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leon (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leon (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Leon (W) 37%, draw 27%, Juarez FC (W) 36%.

How many goals are expected in Leon (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Leon (W) 1.41 · Juarez FC (W) 1.39), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leon (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.