Prediction: Necaxa (W) vs Toluca (W)
Team pages: Necaxa (W) · Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)5-1Necaxa (W)
- Necaxa (W)0-2Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)3-0Necaxa (W)
- Necaxa (W)1-4Toluca (W)
- Necaxa (W)0-0Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)2-0Necaxa (W)
| Necaxa (W) | Draw | Toluca (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 4% | 7% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (W) (rating 1357 vs 1538).
- H2H favours Toluca (W): 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Necaxa (W) | Toluca (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 4.1 | 2.3 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 2.1 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.6 | 2.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Necaxa (W) 0–1–5 Toluca (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 5-1 HT 1-0 | Necaxa (W) |
| 18/10/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Necaxa (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Toluca (W) |
| 28/02/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Necaxa (W) |
| 28/09/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Necaxa (W) | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Toluca (W) |
| 06/02/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Necaxa (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca (W) |
| 29/08/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Necaxa (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America (W) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas (W) | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 12 |
| 5 | Atlas (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 12 |
| 6 | Pachuca (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| 7 | Tijuana (W) | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 6 |
| 8 | Puebla (W) | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 3 |
| 9 | Necaxa (W) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Necaxa (W) | Toluca (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Monterrey (W) | 0-10 L | 1-5 L |
| Juarez FC (W) | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Atletico San Luis (W) | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Club America (W) | 0-7 L | 3-4 L |
| Tijuana (W) | 1-5 L | 6-0 W |
| Atlante (W) | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 6 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Necaxa (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-10 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-4 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-5 | 0-7 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-5 | 1-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/04 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-6 | 3 | 7 | L |
Toluca (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-5 | 2-7 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 24/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/08 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-4 | 1-7 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Necaxa (W) vs Toluca (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Necaxa (W) 8%, draw 10%, Toluca (W) 82%.
How many goals are expected in Necaxa (W) vs Toluca (W)?
The model expects 4.72 goals (Necaxa (W) 1.36 · Toluca (W) 3.36), with a 56% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Necaxa (W) vs Toluca (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.