Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 22/09, 02:00

Prediction: Toluca (W) vs Tigres UANL (W)

Team pages: Toluca (W) · Tigres UANL (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Toluca (W)1.51

Tigres UANL (W)2.01

1X2

28% 24% 48%

Toluca (W) Draw Tigres UANL (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Toluca (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWWLW

Tigres UANL (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Toluca (W) 2–1–3 Tigres UANL (W) (6 last)

Tigres UANL (W)1-2Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)2-1Tigres UANL (W)
Toluca (W)1-2Tigres UANL (W)
Tigres UANL (W)1-1Toluca (W)
Tigres UANL (W)5-0Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)0-6Tigres UANL (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toluca (W) 1542 · Tigres UANL (W) 1566

	Toluca (W)	Draw	Tigres UANL (W)
Our model	28%	23%	48%
Market	27%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tigres UANL (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toluca (W)	Tigres UANL (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.8	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +15’	3.30	3.60	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca (W) 2–1–3 Tigres UANL (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Tigres UANL (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Toluca (W)
01/05/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Tigres UANL (W)
22/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Tigres UANL (W)
14/07/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Tigres UANL (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Toluca (W)
27/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Tigres UANL (W)	5-0 HT 3-0	Toluca (W)
13/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	0-6 HT 0-2	Tigres UANL (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monterrey (W)	8	7	0	1	33	9	21
2	Tigres UANL (W)	7	6	0	1	21	6	18
3	Toluca (W)	7	5	1	1	17	8	16
4	Juarez FC (W)	7	5	0	2	7	5	15
5	Leon (W)	7	4	0	3	15	10	12
6	Cruz Azul (W)	7	4	0	3	11	18	12
7	Santos Laguna (W)	7	3	0	4	9	16	9
8	Queretaro (W)	7	2	0	5	9	18	6
9	Atlante (W)	7	1	0	6	4	11	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toluca (W)	Tigres UANL (W)
Leon (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Juarez FC (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Club America (W)	3-4 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Toluca (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toluca (W)

WLLWWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	6-0	4	3	W
06/09	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
29/08	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
24/08	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	9	1	W
18/08	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/08	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
03/08	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	4-1	5	3	W
10/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-2	3-4	4	1	L
08/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-4	1-7	5	1	L
04/05	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-1	7	2	W

Tigres UANL (W)

LLDWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	2-5	4	5	L
07/09	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
30/08	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/08	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/08	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
11/08	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
02/08	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	6-0	8-0	7	0	W
27/07	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
04/05	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
01/05	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toluca (W) vs Tigres UANL (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tigres UANL (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Toluca (W) 28%, draw 24%, Tigres UANL (W) 48%.

How many goals are expected in Toluca (W) vs Tigres UANL (W)?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Toluca (W) 1.51 · Tigres UANL (W) 2.01), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Toluca (W) vs Tigres UANL (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.