Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 26/09, 03:00
Prediction: Cruz Azul (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Team pages: Cruz Azul (W) · Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Cruz Azul (W)1.21
Chivas Guadalajara (W)1.97
1X2
Cruz Azul (W)
Draw
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Cruz Azul (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cruz Azul (W)
0–3–3
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
(6 last)
- Cruz Azul (W)0-0Chivas Guadalajara (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)1-1Cruz Azul (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)1-1Chivas Guadalajara (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)2-0Cruz Azul (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)4-0Cruz Azul (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)1-5Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cruz Azul (W) 1485 · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1530
| Cruz Azul (W) | Draw | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (W) (rating 1485 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara (W): 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cruz Azul (W) | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.5 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 2.1 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruz Azul (W) 0–3–3 Chivas Guadalajara (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
| 09/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cruz Azul (W) |
| 21/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
| 27/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cruz Azul (W) |
| 29/04/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Cruz Azul (W) |
| 21/08/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 1-5 HT 1-3 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America (W) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas (W) | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 12 |
| 5 | Atlas (W) | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
| 6 | Pachuca (W) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 7 | Tijuana (W) | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 8 | Puebla (W) | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 3 |
| 9 | Necaxa (W) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cruz Azul (W) | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Unam Pumas (W) | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Queretaro (W) | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Atlas (W) | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Monterrey (W) | 0-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cruz Azul (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-4 | 0-10 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/04 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/05 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cruz Azul (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Cruz Azul (W) 22%, draw 24%, Chivas Guadalajara (W) 54%.
How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Cruz Azul (W) 1.21 · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1.97), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.