Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 05/10, 01:00

Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Juarez FC (W)

Team pages: Chivas Guadalajara (W) · Juarez FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Chivas Guadalajara (W)1.4

Juarez FC (W)1.13

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Chivas Guadalajara (W) Draw Juarez FC (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chivas Guadalajara (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Juarez FC (W) 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chivas Guadalajara (W) 3–2–1 Juarez FC (W) (6 last)

Juarez FC (W)1-1Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)1-0Juarez FC (W)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)0-0Juarez FC (W)
Juarez FC (W)0-1Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Juarez FC (W)2-0Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)2-0Juarez FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1538 · Juarez FC (W) 1553

	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	Draw	Juarez FC (W)
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara (W): 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:46 +27’	2.10	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 3–2–1 Juarez FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
01/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Juarez FC (W)
17/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Juarez FC (W)
05/07/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
15/01/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
03/09/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Juarez FC (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America (W)	9	8	1	0	42	7	25
2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	9	6	0	3	20	11	18
3	Atletico San Luis (W)	9	5	1	3	22	16	16
4	Unam Pumas (W)	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
5	Atlas (W)	9	3	3	3	10	17	12
6	Pachuca (W)	9	3	1	5	13	13	10
7	Tijuana (W)	9	2	0	7	12	24	6
8	Puebla (W)	9	1	0	8	13	38	3
9	Necaxa (W)	9	0	0	9	3	36	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Cruz Azul (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Tijuana (W)	2-0 W	5-1 W
Pachuca (W)	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Juarez FC (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chivas Guadalajara (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
20/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
13/09	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	2-3	7	6	L
05/09	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	4-0	1	2	W
31/08	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
24/08	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
17/08	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	3-1	10	2	W
09/08	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
03/08	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	3-1	7	4	W
04/05	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-2	2	1	L

Juarez FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	5-1	2	3	W
22/09	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
13/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
08/09	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
30/08	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
23/08	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	3-2	8	4	W
16/08	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
11/08	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
02/08	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara (W) 42%, draw 29%, Juarez FC (W) 29%.

How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1.4 · Juarez FC (W) 1.13), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.