Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 17/10, 20:00
Prediction: Puebla (W) vs Tijuana (W)
Team pages: Puebla (W) · Tijuana (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.74Total
Puebla (W)1.15
Tijuana (W)2.59
1X2
Puebla (W)
Draw
Tijuana (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Puebla (W)
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Tijuana (W)
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puebla (W)
0–2–4
Tijuana (W)
(6 last)
- Tijuana (W)3-0Puebla (W)
- Puebla (W)1-2Tijuana (W)
- Puebla (W)2-2Tijuana (W)
- Tijuana (W)3-2Puebla (W)
- Tijuana (W)1-1Puebla (W)
- Puebla (W)1-3Tijuana (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puebla (W) 1374 · Tijuana (W) 1473
| Puebla (W) | Draw | Tijuana (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 18% | 67% |
| Market | 14% | 18% | 68% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tijuana (W) (rating 1374 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Tijuana (W): 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puebla (W) | Tijuana (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 3.9 | 1.3 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 2.1 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.9 | 1.6 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla (W) 0–2–4 Tijuana (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Tijuana (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Puebla (W) |
| 19/10/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Puebla (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Tijuana (W) |
| 09/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Puebla (W) | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Tijuana (W) |
| 13/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Tijuana (W) | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Puebla (W) |
| 02/02/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Tijuana (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Puebla (W) |
| 05/11/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Puebla (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Tijuana (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 45 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 19 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas (W) | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 13 |
| 5 | Atlas (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 12 |
| 6 | Pachuca (W) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 7 | Tijuana (W) | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 9 |
| 8 | Puebla (W) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 3 |
| 9 | Necaxa (W) | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Puebla (W) | Tijuana (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Monterrey (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Necaxa (W) | 4-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Atletico San Luis (W) | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Club America (W) | 1-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 1-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Tijuana (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puebla (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 2-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/09 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-3 | 2-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
4-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-6 | 0-8 | 0 | 0 | L |
Tijuana (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 15/09 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
5-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puebla (W) vs Tijuana (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tijuana (W) win (68%). Probabilities: Puebla (W) 14%, draw 18%, Tijuana (W) 68%.
How many goals are expected in Puebla (W) vs Tijuana (W)?
The model expects 3.74 goals (Puebla (W) 1.15 · Tijuana (W) 2.59), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Puebla (W) vs Tijuana (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.