Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 25/10, 02:10
Prediction: Cruz Azul (W) vs Toluca (W)
Team pages: Cruz Azul (W) · Toluca (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Cruz Azul (W)1.52
Toluca (W)1.8
1X2
Cruz Azul (W)
Draw
Toluca (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Cruz Azul (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Toluca (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cruz Azul (W)
3–3
Toluca (W)
(6 last)
- Toluca (W)0-4Cruz Azul (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)4-3Toluca (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)2-1Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)3-1Cruz Azul (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)2-3Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)3-0Cruz Azul (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cruz Azul (W) 1488 · Toluca (W) 1525
| Cruz Azul (W) | Draw | Toluca (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cruz Azul (W) | Toluca (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.1 | 2.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruz Azul (W) 3–0–3 Toluca (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Cruz Azul (W) |
| 26/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Toluca (W) |
| 13/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Toluca (W) |
| 12/10/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Cruz Azul (W) |
| 22/04/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Toluca (W) |
| 21/10/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cruz Azul (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey (W) | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL (W) | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Juarez FC (W) | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Toluca (W) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | Santos Laguna (W) | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
| 6 | Leon (W) | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 15 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul (W) | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 15 |
| 8 | Atlante (W) | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 7 |
| 9 | Queretaro (W) | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cruz Azul (W) | Toluca (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Monterrey (W) | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Necaxa (W) | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Santos Laguna (W) | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Juarez FC (W) | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Tigres UANL (W) | 0-3 L | 2-7 L |
| Atlante (W) | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cruz Azul (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/09 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-4 | 0-10 | 6 | 1 | L |
Toluca (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 05/10 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/09 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 22/09 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-5 | 2-7 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 24/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/08 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cruz Azul (W) vs Toluca (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Cruz Azul (W) 31%, draw 25%, Toluca (W) 43%.
How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul (W) vs Toluca (W)?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Cruz Azul (W) 1.52 · Toluca (W) 1.8), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul (W) vs Toluca (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.