Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 27/10, 02:06

Prediction: Santos Laguna (W) vs Leon (W)

Team pages: Santos Laguna (W) · Leon (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Santos Laguna (W)1.16

Leon (W)1.66

1X2

26% 26% 48%

Santos Laguna (W) Draw Leon (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Santos Laguna (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWLWD

Leon (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLWD

Head-to-head

Santos Laguna (W) 1–2–3 Leon (W) (6 last)

Santos Laguna (W)0-0Leon (W)
Leon (W)5-0Santos Laguna (W)
Leon (W)3-1Santos Laguna (W)
Santos Laguna (W)5-0Leon (W)
Leon (W)4-0Santos Laguna (W)
Santos Laguna (W)2-2Leon (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos Laguna (W) 1507 · Leon (W) 1483

	Santos Laguna (W)	Draw	Leon (W)
Our model	26%	27%	48%
Market	26%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Leon (W): 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos Laguna (W)	Leon (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.98 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.79
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:03 +2’	3.40	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +24’	3.98	3.79	1.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos Laguna (W) 1–2–3 Leon (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Santos Laguna (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Leon (W)
23/09/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Leon (W)	5-0 HT 0-0	Santos Laguna (W)
15/04/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Leon (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Santos Laguna (W)
19/10/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Santos Laguna (W)	5-0 HT 5-0	Leon (W)
30/04/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Leon (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Santos Laguna (W)
21/10/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Santos Laguna (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Leon (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monterrey (W)	11	10	0	1	40	13	30
2	Tigres UANL (W)	11	9	1	1	34	10	28
3	Juarez FC (W)	12	9	0	3	18	9	27
4	Toluca (W)	12	8	2	2	27	17	26
5	Leon (W)	11	5	1	5	18	18	16
6	Santos Laguna (W)	11	5	1	5	13	20	16
7	Cruz Azul (W)	12	5	0	7	14	24	15
8	Atlante (W)	11	2	1	8	6	15	7
9	Queretaro (W)	12	2	0	10	11	26	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos Laguna (W)	Leon (W)
Toluca (W)	0-0 D	0-1 L
Puebla (W)	1-0 W	5-2 W
Pachuca (W)	1-4 L	1-0 W
Tigres UANL (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Atlante (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
Juarez FC (W)	2-3 L	0-2 L
Monterrey (W)	1-4 L	3-2 W
Queretaro (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Leon (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santos Laguna (W)

WLLWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
03/10	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/09	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-4	1	0	L
22/09	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
14/09	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	3-2	3	6	W
07/09	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
01/09	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
23/08	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	2-3	3	4	L
18/08	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-4	8	3	L
09/08	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	3	10	W

Leon (W)

LLWLWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
20/10	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/09	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-5	7	6	L
22/09	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
15/09	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
08/09	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-1	5-2	9	3	W
29/08	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
22/08	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	3-2	4	3	W
18/08	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
11/08	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos Laguna (W) vs Leon (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leon (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Santos Laguna (W) 26%, draw 26%, Leon (W) 48%.

How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna (W) vs Leon (W)?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Santos Laguna (W) 1.16 · Leon (W) 1.66), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos Laguna (W) vs Leon (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.