Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 18/10, 03:00
Prediction: Monterrey (W) vs Cruz Azul (W)
Team pages: Monterrey (W) · Cruz Azul (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.01Total
Monterrey (W)2.92
Cruz Azul (W)1.09
1X2
Monterrey (W)
Draw
Cruz Azul (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Monterrey (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Cruz Azul (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monterrey (W)
4–1–1
Cruz Azul (W)
(6 last)
- Monterrey (W)4-0Cruz Azul (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)1-1Monterrey (W)
- Monterrey (W)2-1Cruz Azul (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)4-0Monterrey (W)
- Cruz Azul (W)2-3Monterrey (W)
- Monterrey (W)1-0Cruz Azul (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monterrey (W) 1620 · Cruz Azul (W) 1478
| Monterrey (W) | Draw | Cruz Azul (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monterrey (W) (rating 1620 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Monterrey (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monterrey (W) | Cruz Azul (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.9 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterrey (W) 4–1–1 Cruz Azul (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Monterrey (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Cruz Azul (W) |
| 30/04/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Monterrey (W) |
| 22/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Monterrey (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cruz Azul (W) |
| 12/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Monterrey (W) |
| 03/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Cruz Azul (W) | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Monterrey (W) |
| 09/09/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Monterrey (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cruz Azul (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey (W) | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 10 | 25 |
| 3 | Toluca (W) | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 22 |
| 4 | Juarez FC (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Santos Laguna (W) | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul (W) | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 21 | 15 |
| 7 | Leon (W) | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlante (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| 9 | Queretaro (W) | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monterrey (W) | Cruz Azul (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Club America (W) | 4-3 W | 0-10 L |
| Necaxa (W) | 10-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Queretaro (W) | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Santos Laguna (W) | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Atlante (W) | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Monterrey (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monterrey (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-3 | 4-3 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 10-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/08 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/08 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
Cruz Azul (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/09 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-4 | 0-10 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monterrey (W) vs Cruz Azul (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monterrey (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Monterrey (W) 73%, draw 16%, Cruz Azul (W) 10%.
How many goals are expected in Monterrey (W) vs Cruz Azul (W)?
The model expects 4.01 goals (Monterrey (W) 2.92 · Cruz Azul (W) 1.09), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Monterrey (W) vs Cruz Azul (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.