Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 21/10, 05:07
Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Necaxa (W)
Team pages: Chivas Guadalajara (W) · Necaxa (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.38Total
Chivas Guadalajara (W)3.19
Necaxa (W)1.19
1X2
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Draw
Necaxa (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Necaxa (W)
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
6–0
Necaxa (W)
(6 last)
- Necaxa (W)0-2Chivas Guadalajara (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)4-0Necaxa (W)
- Necaxa (W)0-3Chivas Guadalajara (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)3-1Necaxa (W)
- Chivas Guadalajara (W)4-0Necaxa (W)
- Necaxa (W)0-3Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1573 · Necaxa (W) 1349
| Chivas Guadalajara (W) | Draw | Necaxa (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 94% | 5% | 2% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (W) (rating 1573 vs 1349).
- H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara (W): 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chivas Guadalajara (W) | Necaxa (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 3.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 0.5 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 6–0–0 Necaxa (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Necaxa (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
| 01/11/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Necaxa (W) |
| 07/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Necaxa (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
| 08/09/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Necaxa (W) |
| 05/03/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Necaxa (W) |
| 13/08/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Necaxa (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 45 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 19 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas (W) | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 13 |
| 5 | Atlas (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 12 |
| 6 | Pachuca (W) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 7 | Tijuana (W) | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 9 |
| 8 | Puebla (W) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 3 |
| 9 | Necaxa (W) | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | Necaxa (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Juarez FC (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Cruz Azul (W) | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Tijuana (W) | 2-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Monterrey (W) | 2-3 L | 0-10 L |
| Unam Pumas (W) | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Atletico San Luis (W) | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Puebla (W) | 4-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 26/09 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Necaxa (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 29/09 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-10 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-4 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-5 | 0-7 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-5 | 1-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Necaxa (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara (W) win (86%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara (W) 86%, draw 9%, Necaxa (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Necaxa (W)?
The model expects 4.38 goals (Chivas Guadalajara (W) 3.19 · Necaxa (W) 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara (W) vs Necaxa (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.