Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 31/10, 01:00

Prediction: Toluca (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Team pages: Toluca (W) · Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Toluca (W)1.7

Chivas Guadalajara (W)1.45

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Toluca (W) Draw Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Toluca (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWWDW

Chivas Guadalajara (W) 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Toluca (W) 2–2–2 Chivas Guadalajara (W) (6 last)

Chivas Guadalajara (W)1-1Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)0-2Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)2-2Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)2-1Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Chivas Guadalajara (W)1-0Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)2-0Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toluca (W) 1538 · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1553

	Toluca (W)	Draw	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Our model	43%	26%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toluca (W)	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:47 +32’	2.15	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:01 +7’	2.50	3.35	2.68
05:47 +18’	2.46▼	3.36▲	2.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca (W) 2–2–2 Chivas Guadalajara (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Toluca (W)
10/11/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
07/11/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Toluca (W)
14/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
14/02/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Toluca (W)
03/09/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Chivas Guadalajara (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America (W)	12	10	1	1	54	12	31
2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	12	9	0	3	29	11	27
3	Atletico San Luis (W)	12	6	1	5	24	25	19
4	Unam Pumas (W)	12	5	2	5	20	18	17
5	Atlas (W)	12	4	4	4	13	20	16
6	Pachuca (W)	12	4	1	7	20	17	13
7	Tijuana (W)	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
8	Puebla (W)	12	1	1	10	15	42	4
9	Necaxa (W)	12	0	0	12	3	50	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toluca (W)	Chivas Guadalajara (W)
Cruz Azul (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Pachuca (W)	2-1 W	1-3 L
Necaxa (W)	4-0 W	7-0 W
Tijuana (W)	6-0 W	2-0 W
Monterrey (W)	1-5 L	2-3 L
Atlante (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Atlas (W)	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (W) (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toluca (W)

DWWLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/10	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
05/10	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
29/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
22/09	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-5	2-7	3	5	L
15/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	6-0	4	3	W
06/09	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
29/08	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
24/08	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	9	1	W
18/08	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-1	4	3	D

Chivas Guadalajara (W)

WLLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
21/10	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	7-0	11	2	W
05/10	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	0	7	W
26/09	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
20/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
13/09	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	2-3	7	6	L
05/09	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	4-0	1	2	W
31/08	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
24/08	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
17/08	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	3-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toluca (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Toluca (W) 42%, draw 26%, Chivas Guadalajara (W) 32%.

How many goals are expected in Toluca (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Toluca (W) 1.7 · Chivas Guadalajara (W) 1.45), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Toluca (W) vs Chivas Guadalajara (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.