Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 20/10, 02:00

Prediction: Toluca (W) vs Santos Laguna (W)

Team pages: Toluca (W) · Santos Laguna (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

Toluca (W)2.91

Santos Laguna (W)0.91

1X2

78% 14% 8%

Toluca (W) Draw Santos Laguna (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Toluca (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Santos Laguna (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Toluca (W) 5–1–0 Santos Laguna (W) (6 last)

Santos Laguna (W)0-1Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)1-0Santos Laguna (W)
Toluca (W)2-1Santos Laguna (W)
Santos Laguna (W)0-2Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)7-0Santos Laguna (W)
Santos Laguna (W)2-2Toluca (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toluca (W) 1568 · Santos Laguna (W) 1484

	Toluca (W)	Draw	Santos Laguna (W)
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	78%	14%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (W) (rating 1568 vs 1484).
H2H favours Toluca (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toluca (W)	Santos Laguna (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.6	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.4	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.93

2 (+2.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.17▲	Pinn 1.21 ★
X	7.00 → 6.50▼	Pinn 6.61
2	13.00 → 12.00▼	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:04 +37’	1.14	7.00	13.00
23:03 +11’	1.17▲	6.50▼	12.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:25 +16’	1.21	6.61	9.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca (W) 5–1–0 Santos Laguna (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Santos Laguna (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Toluca (W)
20/07/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Santos Laguna (W)
09/02/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Santos Laguna (W)
07/07/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Santos Laguna (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Toluca (W)
08/01/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	7-0 HT 5-0	Santos Laguna (W)
03/10/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Santos Laguna (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Toluca (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monterrey (W)	10	9	0	1	39	13	27
2	Tigres UANL (W)	10	8	1	1	32	10	25
3	Toluca (W)	10	7	1	2	25	16	22
4	Juarez FC (W)	10	7	0	3	14	7	21
5	Santos Laguna (W)	10	5	0	5	13	20	15
6	Cruz Azul (W)	10	5	0	5	13	21	15
7	Leon (W)	9	4	0	5	15	17	12
8	Atlante (W)	10	2	1	7	6	13	7
9	Queretaro (W)	10	2	0	8	10	22	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toluca (W)	Santos Laguna (W)
Pachuca (W)	2-1 W	1-4 L
Tigres UANL (W)	2-7 L	0-3 L
Monterrey (W)	1-5 L	1-4 L
Atlante (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Juarez FC (W)	2-0 W	2-3 L
Atletico San Luis (W)	4-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Toluca (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toluca (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
29/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
22/09	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-5	2-7	3	5	L
15/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	6-0	4	3	W
06/09	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
29/08	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
24/08	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	9	1	W
18/08	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/08	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
03/08	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	4-1	5	3	W

Santos Laguna (W)

LWLLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/09	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-4	1	0	L
22/09	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
14/09	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	3-2	3	6	W
07/09	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
01/09	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
23/08	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-2	2-3	3	4	L
18/08	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-4	8	3	L
09/08	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	3	10	W
04/08	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-3	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toluca (W) vs Santos Laguna (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Toluca (W) 78%, draw 14%, Santos Laguna (W) 8%.

How many goals are expected in Toluca (W) vs Santos Laguna (W)?

The model expects 3.81 goals (Toluca (W) 2.91 · Santos Laguna (W) 0.91), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Toluca (W) vs Santos Laguna (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.