Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 28/10, 14:00

Prediction: NK Limbus Pekre vs NK Podvinci

Team pages: NK Limbus Pekre · NK Podvinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

NK Limbus Pekre1.38

NK Podvinci1.85

1X2

28% 23% 48%

NK Limbus Pekre Draw NK Podvinci

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Limbus Pekre 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLLDW

NK Podvinci 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLLWDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Limbus Pekre 1450 · NK Podvinci 1484

	NK Limbus Pekre	Draw	NK Podvinci
Our model	28%	25%	47%
Market	29%	22%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Limbus Pekre	NK Podvinci
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	25/63/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.00

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:55 +13’	3.10	4.00	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	10	8	2	0	30	12	26
2	NK Fuzinar	10	6	1	3	32	22	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	6	1	3	23	17	19
4	NK Smartno	10	6	1	3	27	22	19
5	NK Hajdina	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
6	NK Carda	10	4	3	3	23	18	15
7	SD Videm	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
8	NK Podvinci	10	4	2	4	15	19	14
9	NK Race	10	3	4	3	11	10	13
10	NK Korotan Prevalje	10	2	5	3	14	15	11
11	NK Dobrovce	10	3	0	7	15	27	9
12	NK Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	12	16	8
13	NK Limbus Pekre	10	2	2	6	10	23	8
14	NK Sampion Celje	10	1	1	8	11	23	4
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Limbus Pekre	NK Podvinci
NK Carda	3-1 W	2-2 D
NK Race	1-1 D	0-1 L
NK Smartno	0-4 L	1-8 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	1-3 L	2-0 W
NK Ormoz	0-4 L	2-0 W
NK Hajdina	1-1 D	4-1 W
NK Sampion Celje	0-4 L	1-1 D
NK Odranci	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Limbus Pekre

LWLLDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
10/10	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
03/10	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-4	–	–	L
26/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	7	L
19/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-4	–	–	L
29/08	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L

NK Podvinci

LDWWWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
04/10	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
29/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
26/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
19/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-8	6	4	L
12/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	4-1	0	2	W
22/08	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Limbus Pekre vs NK Podvinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Podvinci win (48%). Probabilities: NK Limbus Pekre 28%, draw 23%, NK Podvinci 48%.

How many goals are expected in NK Limbus Pekre vs NK Podvinci?

The model expects 3.23 goals (NK Limbus Pekre 1.38 · NK Podvinci 1.85), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Limbus Pekre vs NK Podvinci?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.