Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 14/09, 00:15
Prediction: CA Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Team pages: CA Independiente · San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.76Total
CA Independiente1.11
San Lorenzo0.65
1X2
CA Independiente
Draw
San Lorenzo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
San Lorenzo
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente
2–4–0
San Lorenzo
(6 last)
- San Lorenzo1-2CA Independiente
- CA Independiente1-1San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo1-2CA Independiente
- CA Independiente0-0San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-0CA Independiente
- San Lorenzo1-1CA Independiente
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente 1504 · San Lorenzo 1471
| CA Independiente | Draw | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 34% | 20% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.76 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours CA Independiente: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.2 | 0.9 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente 2–4–0 San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-2 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente |
| 21/09/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-1 HT 0-1 | San Lorenzo |
| 08/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-2 HT 1-1 | CA Independiente |
| 04/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 02/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 04/06/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Union Santa Fe | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | CA Independiente | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Newell's | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 8 | Boca Juniors | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | Lanus | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Deportivo Riestra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 12 | Platense | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Estudiantes LP | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Lanus | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Independiente (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 17/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 29/07 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente win (47%). Probabilities: CA Independiente 47%, draw 32%, San Lorenzo 21%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
The model expects 1.76 goals (CA Independiente 1.11 · San Lorenzo 0.65), with a 59% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.