Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 12/09, 22:30

Prediction: Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate

Team pages: Atlético Tucumán · River Plate

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.77Total

Atlético Tucumán0.65

River Plate1.12

1X2

21% 32% 46%

Atlético Tucumán Draw River Plate

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlético Tucumán 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDLWDD

River Plate 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Atlético Tucumán 2–1–3 River Plate (6 last)

River Plate0-1Atlético Tucumán
Atlético Tucumán2-0River Plate
River Plate1-0Atlético Tucumán
River Plate4-1Atlético Tucumán
Atlético Tucumán0-0River Plate
River Plate1-0Atlético Tucumán

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlético Tucumán 1537 · River Plate 1468

	Atlético Tucumán	Draw	River Plate
Our model	20%	34%	45%
Market	22%	31%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 1.77 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlético Tucumán (rating 1537 vs 1468).
H2H favours River Plate: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlético Tucumán	River Plate
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/90/0%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.00

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:53 +21’	4.20	3.00	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlético Tucumán 2–1–3 River Plate

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	River Plate	0-1 HT 0-1	Atlético Tucumán
21/09/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Atlético Tucumán	2-0 HT 1-0	River Plate
09/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	River Plate	1-0 HT 0-0	Atlético Tucumán
14/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	River Plate	4-1 HT 2-1	Atlético Tucumán
15/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Atlético Tucumán	0-0 HT 0-0	River Plate
22/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	River Plate	1-0 HT 0-0	Atlético Tucumán

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	7	5	1	1	12	7	16
2	Sarmiento	8	5	0	3	15	12	15
3	Gimnasia LP	8	5	0	3	12	12	15
4	Belgrano	8	3	3	2	8	5	12
5	CA Tigre	8	3	3	2	7	5	12
6	Rosario Central	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
6	Independiente Rivadavia	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
8	Atlético Tucumán	7	2	4	1	4	2	10
9	Huracan	8	2	4	2	6	6	10
10	Barracas Central	7	3	1	3	4	5	10
11	River Plate	7	2	1	4	7	8	7
12	Banfield	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
13	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	8	1	3	4	3	9	6
14	CA Aldosivi	8	1	2	5	8	12	5
15	Racing Club	7	1	2	4	6	11	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlético Tucumán	River Plate
Belgrano	0-0 D	2-3 L
Banfield	1-1 D	3-2 W
Argentinos Jrs	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: River Plate (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlético Tucumán

LDWDWDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/08	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
17/08	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
08/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-2	13	2	L
04/08	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
31/07	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
26/07	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
03/05	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
27/04	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	7	L

River Plate

WWLLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-2	3	1	W
24/08	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
08/08	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
03/08	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	10	8	L
30/07	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
26/07	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
24/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
17/05	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
14/05	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate?

According to our model, the most likely result is an River Plate win (46%). Probabilities: Atlético Tucumán 21%, draw 32%, River Plate 46%.

How many goals are expected in Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate?

The model expects 1.77 goals (Atlético Tucumán 0.65 · River Plate 1.12), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.