Football · Brazil Serie B · 12/08, 00:30

Prediction: Avai vs CRB

Team pages: Avai · CRB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Avai1.24

CRB1.29

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Avai Draw CRB

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Avai 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWDWL

CRB 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Avai 4–1–1 CRB (6 last)

CRB0-1Avai
CRB1-0Avai
Avai1-0CRB
CRB1-2Avai
Avai2-1CRB
Avai1-1CRB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avai 1466 · CRB 1508

	Avai	Draw	CRB
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CRB (rating 1466 vs 1508).
H2H favours Avai: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avai	CRB
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.75 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.63 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:15 +1’	2.50	3.20	2.75
21:46 +2’	2.70▲	3.20	2.55▼
06:23 +2’	2.75▲	3.20	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:16	2.82	3.12	2.56
02:23	2.85▲	3.15▲	2.59▲
09:40	2.85	3.16▲	2.58▼
15:31 +1’	2.78▼	3.16	2.64▲
21:37 +5’	2.80▲	3.15▼	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avai 4–1–1 CRB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie B	CRB	0-1 HT 0-0	Avai
04/10/25 Brazil Serie B	CRB	1-0 HT 1-0	Avai
08/06/25 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-0 HT 0-0	CRB
31/08/24 Brazil Serie B	CRB	1-2 HT 0-2	Avai
15/05/24 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-1 HT 2-0	CRB
11/11/23 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-1 HT 1-0	CRB

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	11	7	2	23	12	40
2	EC Juventude	20	10	5	5	22	12	35
3	Operario PR	21	10	5	6	29	28	35
4	Fortaleza	20	10	4	6	23	19	34
5	Vila Nova	21	10	4	7	27	25	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	20	9	6	5	32	19	33
7	Sport Recife	21	7	11	3	26	19	32
8	Atletico GO	20	8	7	5	23	20	31
9	Sao Bernardo SP	21	8	6	7	31	24	30
10	CRB	20	8	5	7	31	32	29
11	Goias	20	8	5	7	21	26	29
12	Athletic Club MG	20	6	10	4	19	18	28
13	Nautico	20	7	4	9	24	24	25
14	Ceara	21	6	7	8	22	25	25
15	Cuiaba	20	5	10	5	15	15	25
16	Botafogo SP	20	6	6	8	24	21	24
17	Londrina	20	5	5	10	27	31	20
18	Avai	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
19	America MG	20	2	5	13	14	31	11
20	Ponte Preta	21	2	3	16	15	41	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avai	CRB
Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 D	2-3 L
Nautico	2-0 W	2-1 W
Botafogo SP	1-3 L	1-0 W
Cuiaba	1-0 W	0-2 L
Londrina	2-3 L	0-5 L
Ceara	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Avai (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Avai

LLLWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
12/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
07/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
28/06	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
21/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
16/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
11/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	0	5	L
07/06	Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	0-1	0-3	4	6	L

CRB

LLDDWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
23/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
17/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
13/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
04/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-5	11	4	L
01/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
13/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	3-0	3-3	3	7	D
07/06	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	8	7	L
01/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avai vs CRB?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CRB win (37%). Probabilities: Avai 34%, draw 29%, CRB 37%.

How many goals are expected in Avai vs CRB?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Avai 1.24 · CRB 1.29), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avai vs CRB?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.