Football · Brazil Serie B · 20/08, 01:30
Prediction: Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta
Team pages: Vila Nova · Ponte Preta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Vila Nova1.83
Ponte Preta0.78
1X2
Vila Nova
Draw
Ponte Preta
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Vila Nova
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Ponte Preta
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vila Nova
2–2–2
Ponte Preta
(6 last)
- Ponte Preta0-1Vila Nova
- Vila Nova2-1Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta2-0Vila Nova
- Vila Nova1-1Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta1-0Vila Nova
- Ponte Preta1-1Vila Nova
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vila Nova (rating 1499 vs 1397).
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vila Nova | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 2.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vila Nova 2–2–2 Ponte Preta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Vila Nova |
| 11/11/24 Brazil Serie B | Vila Nova | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Ponte Preta |
| 24/07/24 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Vila Nova |
| 16/09/23 Brazil Serie B | Vila Nova | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ponte Preta |
| 28/05/23 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Vila Nova |
| 09/10/22 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Vila Nova |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 43 |
| 2 | EC Juventude | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 25 | 37 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 36 |
| 5 | Operario PR | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 35 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 28 | 20 | 35 |
| 7 | Gremio Novorizontino | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 20 | 33 |
| 8 | CRB | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| 9 | Goias | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 27 | 32 |
| 10 | Atletico GO | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 32 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 31 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 25 | 30 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 22 | 30 |
| 14 | Cuiaba | 22 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 29 |
| 15 | Nautico | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 16 | Ceara | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | 25 |
| 17 | Londrina | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 20 |
| 18 | Avai | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 28 | 20 |
| 19 | America MG | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 33 | 11 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vila Nova | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico GO | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Fortaleza | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Criciuma | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| EC Juventude | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Gremio Novorizontino | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Nautico | 4-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vila Nova
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 6 | L |
| 28/07 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 11/07 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/07 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
4-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
Ponte Preta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 08/08 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/07 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 23/07 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/06 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vila Nova win (61%). Probabilities: Vila Nova 61%, draw 24%, Ponte Preta 14%.
How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Vila Nova 1.83 · Ponte Preta 0.78), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.