Football · Brazil Serie B · 21/08, 01:30

Prediction: Gremio Novorizontino vs America MG

Team pages: Gremio Novorizontino · America MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Gremio Novorizontino1.67

America MG0.77

1X2

58% 26% 16%

Gremio Novorizontino Draw America MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio Novorizontino 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLWLD

America MG 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLWLL

Head-to-head

Gremio Novorizontino 2–3–1 America MG (6 last)

America MG0-3Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino1-1America MG
America MG2-2Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino3-1America MG
Gremio Novorizontino1-1America MG
America MG2-0Gremio Novorizontino

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1523 vs 1443).
H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio Novorizontino	America MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.49 → 1.56▲	Pinn 1.56
X	3.89 → 3.77▼	Pinn 3.77
2	6.85 → 6.34▼	Pinn 6.34

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:44 +1’	1.49	3.89	6.85
02:13 +3’	1.56▲	3.77▼	6.34▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 2–3–1 America MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Brazil Serie B	America MG	0-3 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
26/03/26 Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	Gremio Novorizontino	1-1 HT 1-0	America MG
03/11/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-2 HT 1-1	Gremio Novorizontino
12/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	3-1 HT 1-1	America MG
17/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	1-1 HT 1-1	America MG
27/04/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-0 HT 1-0	Gremio Novorizontino

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	22	12	7	3	24	14	43
2	EC Juventude	22	11	6	5	23	12	39
3	Vila Nova	22	11	4	7	29	25	37
4	Fortaleza	22	10	6	6	24	20	36
5	Operario PR	22	10	5	7	30	30	35
6	Sport Recife	22	8	11	3	28	20	35
7	Gremio Novorizontino	22	9	7	6	32	20	34
8	Athletic Club MG	22	8	10	4	24	19	34
9	CRB	22	9	6	7	32	32	33
10	Goias	22	9	5	8	22	27	32
11	Atletico GO	22	8	8	6	24	23	32
12	Sao Bernardo SP	22	8	6	8	31	25	30
13	Botafogo SP	22	8	6	8	27	22	30
14	Cuiaba	22	6	11	5	19	17	29
15	Nautico	22	7	6	9	26	26	27
16	Ceara	22	6	7	9	23	28	25
17	Avai	22	6	5	11	23	29	23
18	Londrina	22	5	5	12	28	34	20
19	America MG	22	2	5	15	16	36	11
20	Ponte Preta	22	2	4	16	16	42	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio Novorizontino	America MG
Londrina	4-1 W	1-1 D
Criciuma	0-1 L	0-1 L
Fortaleza	0-1 L	3-0 W
Operario PR	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio Novorizontino

DWWWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
09/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	3-1	4-1	10	3	W
22/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
12/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
04/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
27/06	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
23/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
15/06	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	5	6	D

America MG

WLLLDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
24/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
17/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio Novorizontino vs America MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio Novorizontino win (58%). Probabilities: Gremio Novorizontino 58%, draw 26%, America MG 16%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio Novorizontino vs America MG?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Gremio Novorizontino 1.67 · America MG 0.77), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio Novorizontino vs America MG?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.