Football · South Africa Premier · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Amazulu vs Marumo Gallants

Team pages: Amazulu · Marumo Gallants

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Amazulu1.51

Marumo Gallants0.84

1X2

52% 29% 19%

Amazulu Draw Marumo Gallants

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Amazulu 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWDWLW

Marumo Gallants 0-7-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDDDLLLD

Head-to-head

Amazulu 3–1–2 Marumo Gallants (6 last)

Marumo Gallants0-1Amazulu
Amazulu1-0Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants1-0Amazulu
Amazulu2-0Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants1-0Amazulu
Amazulu1-1Marumo Gallants

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amazulu 1557 · Marumo Gallants 1445

	Amazulu	Draw	Marumo Gallants
Our model	52%	28%	20%
Market	51%	30%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amazulu (rating 1557 vs 1445).
H2H favours Amazulu: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amazulu	Marumo Gallants
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 2.00 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +4’	1.75	3.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:43 +10’	1.98	2.96	3.92
14:53 +130’	2.00▲	3.02▲	4.03▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Amazulu 3–1–2 Marumo Gallants

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 South Africa Premier	Marumo Gallants	0-1 HT 0-0	Amazulu
20/08/25 South Africa Premier	Amazulu	1-0 HT 1-0	Marumo Gallants
15/02/25 South Africa Cup	Marumo Gallants	1-0 HT 1-0	Amazulu
07/02/25 South Africa Premier	Amazulu	2-0 HT 1-0	Marumo Gallants
28/09/24 South Africa Premier	Marumo Gallants	1-0 HT 1-0	Amazulu
21/01/23 South Africa Premier	Amazulu	1-1 HT 1-1	Marumo Gallants

Standings · South Africa Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Orlando Pirates	5	4	1	0	12	1	13
3	Kaizer Chiefs	5	3	2	0	11	6	11
4	Amazulu	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
5	Milford FC	6	2	2	2	3	5	8
6	Sekhukhune United FC	5	2	1	2	3	4	7
7	Durban City	5	1	3	1	3	2	6
8	TS Galaxy	5	1	3	1	7	7	6
9	Golden Arrows	5	1	3	1	2	2	6
10	Polokwane City	5	1	3	1	7	8	6
11	Stellenbosch FC	5	1	2	2	6	6	5
12	Chippa United	5	0	4	1	2	5	4
13	Richards Bay FC	5	0	3	2	6	8	3
14	Marumo Gallants	5	0	2	3	5	10	2
15	Siwelele FC	6	0	2	4	5	12	2
16	Kruger United	5	0	1	4	2	11	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Amazulu	Marumo Gallants
Richards Bay FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Mamelodi Sundowns	2-5 L	0-2 L
Stellenbosch FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Amazulu (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amazulu

WDDLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Richards Bay FC South Africa Premier	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
26/08	Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier	0-2	2-5	5	4	L
15/08	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/08	Orlando Pirates South Africa Premier	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
01/08	Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
23/05	Durban City South Africa Premier	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
16/05	Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
09/05	Orbit College South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/05	Golden Arrows South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
25/04	Chippa United South Africa Premier	2-1	5-1	8	4	W

Marumo Gallants

DDDDDDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Polokwane City South Africa Premier	2-2	2-2	5	3	D
25/08	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
19/08	Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
14/08	Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
11/08	Kruger United South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
23/05	Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	Polokwane City South Africa Premier	0-1	1-1	0	4	D
09/05	Richards Bay FC South Africa Premier	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
06/05	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
25/04	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amazulu vs Marumo Gallants?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Amazulu win (52%). Probabilities: Amazulu 52%, draw 29%, Marumo Gallants 19%.

How many goals are expected in Amazulu vs Marumo Gallants?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Amazulu 1.51 · Marumo Gallants 0.84), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Amazulu vs Marumo Gallants?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.