Football · South Africa Premier · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Golden Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs

Team pages: Golden Arrows · Kaizer Chiefs

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.67Total

Golden Arrows0.62

Kaizer Chiefs1.05

1X2

22% 33% 46%

Golden Arrows Draw Kaizer Chiefs

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Golden Arrows 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDDDWLD

Kaizer Chiefs 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWDDWD

Head-to-head

Golden Arrows 3–3 Kaizer Chiefs (6 last)

Kaizer Chiefs0-1Golden Arrows
Kaizer Chiefs1-0Golden Arrows
Golden Arrows0-1Kaizer Chiefs
Golden Arrows2-1Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs0-1Golden Arrows
Kaizer Chiefs1-0Golden Arrows

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Golden Arrows 1504 · Kaizer Chiefs 1535

	Golden Arrows	Draw	Kaizer Chiefs
Our model	20%	36%	44%
Market	23%	30%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 1.67 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Golden Arrows	Kaizer Chiefs
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.3	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.00

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.93
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.06 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +5’	3.90	3.00	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:22 +50’	3.95	3.00	2.03
14:36 +30’	3.93▼	2.97▼	2.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Golden Arrows 3–0–3 Kaizer Chiefs

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 South Africa Supa 8 Cup	Kaizer Chiefs	0-1 HT 0-0	Golden Arrows
20/01/26 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	1-0 HT 1-0	Golden Arrows
30/08/25 South Africa Premier	Golden Arrows	0-1 HT 0-0	Kaizer Chiefs
29/03/25 South Africa Premier	Golden Arrows	2-1 HT 1-1	Kaizer Chiefs
12/01/25 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	0-1 HT 0-0	Golden Arrows
05/03/24 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	1-0 HT 1-0	Golden Arrows

Standings · South Africa Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	6	2	0	19	7	20
2	Orlando Pirates	6	5	1	0	14	1	16
3	Amazulu	6	4	1	1	9	7	13
4	Kaizer Chiefs	6	3	3	0	12	7	12
5	Milford FC	7	3	2	2	8	6	11
6	Sekhukhune United FC	7	3	2	2	7	7	11
7	Golden Arrows	6	1	4	1	3	3	7
8	Polokwane City	6	1	4	1	8	9	7
9	Stellenbosch FC	6	1	3	2	7	7	6
10	TS Galaxy	6	1	3	2	7	8	6
11	Durban City	6	1	3	2	3	4	6
12	Chippa United	6	0	5	1	3	6	5
13	Kruger United	6	1	1	4	3	11	4
14	Richards Bay FC	7	0	3	4	9	16	3
15	Siwelele FC	7	0	3	4	6	13	3
16	Marumo Gallants	6	0	2	4	5	11	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Golden Arrows	Kaizer Chiefs
Siwelele FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Mamelodi Sundowns	1-2 L	1-1 D
Chippa United	0-0 D	0-1 L
Polokwane City	0-0 D	1-1 D
Amazulu	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kaizer Chiefs (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Golden Arrows

DDWDDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
06/09	Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
26/08	Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/08	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
12/08	Durban City South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
01/08	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	13	4	D
23/05	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
16/05	Chippa United South Africa Premier	2-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Polokwane City South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	12	5	D
06/05	Amazulu South Africa Premier	0-1	1-1	6	2	D

Kaizer Chiefs

DWWLWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Polokwane City South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
06/09	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
26/08	Richards Bay FC South Africa Premier	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
15/08	Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
12/08	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
01/08	Kruger United South Africa Premier	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
23/05	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/05	Amazulu South Africa Premier	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/05	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
06/05	Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Golden Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kaizer Chiefs win (46%). Probabilities: Golden Arrows 22%, draw 33%, Kaizer Chiefs 46%.

How many goals are expected in Golden Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs?

The model expects 1.67 goals (Golden Arrows 0.62 · Kaizer Chiefs 1.05), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Golden Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.