Football · South Africa Premier · 20/09, 15:00
Prediction: Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates
Team pages: Marumo Gallants · Orlando Pirates
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Marumo Gallants0.58
Orlando Pirates1.87
1X2
Marumo Gallants
Draw
Orlando Pirates
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Marumo Gallants
0-6-4 (W-D-L)
Orlando Pirates
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marumo Gallants
2–1–3
Orlando Pirates
(6 last)
- Orlando Pirates3-0Marumo Gallants
- Orlando Pirates0-0Marumo Gallants
- Marumo Gallants2-1Orlando Pirates
- Orlando Pirates1-0Marumo Gallants
- Marumo Gallants2-0Orlando Pirates
- Orlando Pirates8-1Marumo Gallants
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marumo Gallants 1440 · Orlando Pirates 1642
| Marumo Gallants | Draw | Orlando Pirates | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 23% | 67% |
| Market | 12% | 19% | 69% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando Pirates (rating 1440 vs 1642).
- H2H favours Orlando Pirates: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marumo Gallants | Orlando Pirates | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 2 / 0.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 3.2 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marumo Gallants 2–1–3 Orlando Pirates
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 South Africa Premier | Orlando Pirates | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Marumo Gallants |
| 06/12/25 South Africa League Cup | Orlando Pirates | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Marumo Gallants |
| 12/08/25 South Africa Premier | Marumo Gallants | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Orlando Pirates |
| 13/04/25 South Africa Cup | Orlando Pirates | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Marumo Gallants |
| 01/03/25 South Africa Premier | Marumo Gallants | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Orlando Pirates |
| 24/12/24 South Africa Premier | Orlando Pirates | 8-1 HT 1-1 | Marumo Gallants |
Standings · South Africa Premier
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Milford FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Golden Arrows | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Polokwane City | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | Stellenbosch FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 10 | TS Galaxy | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Durban City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Chippa United | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | Kruger United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 4 |
| 14 | Richards Bay FC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 3 |
| 15 | Siwelele FC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marumo Gallants | Orlando Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Amazulu | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Stellenbosch FC | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Kruger United | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Orlando Pirates (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marumo Gallants
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Amazulu South Africa Premier |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Polokwane City South Africa Premier |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/08 | TS Galaxy South Africa Premier |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/08 | Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/08 | Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/08 | Kruger United South Africa Premier |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Polokwane City South Africa Premier |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Richards Bay FC South Africa Premier |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 06/05 | TS Galaxy South Africa Premier |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
Orlando Pirates
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Kruger United South Africa Premier |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/08 | Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Chippa United South Africa Premier |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 12/08 | Amazulu South Africa Premier |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Milford FC South Africa Premier |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Orbit College South Africa Premier |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Durban City South Africa Premier |
0-0 | 0-0 | 19 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Magesi FC South Africa Premier |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 05/05 | Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Orlando Pirates win (68%). Probabilities: Marumo Gallants 11%, draw 21%, Orlando Pirates 68%.
How many goals are expected in Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Marumo Gallants 0.58 · Orlando Pirates 1.87), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Marumo Gallants vs Orlando Pirates?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.