Football · South Africa Premier · 17/09, 19:30

Prediction: Orlando Pirates vs Durban City

Team pages: Orlando Pirates · Durban City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.86Total

Orlando Pirates1.58

Durban City0.28

1X2

72% 21% 7%

Orlando Pirates Draw Durban City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 60%

Most likely score

1-0 24%

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando Pirates 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDWWW

Durban City 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDLLDDWD

Head-to-head

Orlando Pirates 1–2–0 Durban City (3 last)

Orlando Pirates1-1Durban City
Orlando Pirates0-0Durban City
Durban City0-2Orlando Pirates

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando Pirates 1634 · Durban City 1509

	Orlando Pirates	Draw	Durban City
Our model	70%	25%	5%
Market	74%	17%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 1.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando Pirates (rating 1634 vs 1509).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando Pirates	Durban City
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	11/67/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.5	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.20

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.20 → 5.20	Bet365 5.20
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +16’	1.22	5.20	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando Pirates 1–2–0 Durban City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 South Africa Supa 8 Cup	Orlando Pirates	1-1 HT 1-0	Durban City
16/05/26 South Africa Premier	Orlando Pirates	0-0 HT 0-0	Durban City
29/11/25 South Africa Premier	Durban City	0-2 HT 0-1	Orlando Pirates

Standings · South Africa Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	6	2	0	19	7	20
2	Orlando Pirates	5	4	1	0	12	1	13
3	Amazulu	6	4	1	1	9	7	13
4	Kaizer Chiefs	6	3	3	0	12	7	12
5	Sekhukhune United FC	6	2	2	2	4	5	8
6	Milford FC	6	2	2	2	3	5	8
7	Golden Arrows	6	1	4	1	3	3	7
8	Polokwane City	6	1	4	1	8	9	7
9	Durban City	5	1	3	1	3	2	6
10	Stellenbosch FC	6	1	3	2	7	7	6
10	TS Galaxy	5	1	3	1	7	7	6
12	Chippa United	6	0	5	1	3	6	5
13	Richards Bay FC	5	0	3	2	6	8	3
14	Siwelele FC	7	0	3	4	6	13	3
15	Marumo Gallants	6	0	2	4	5	11	2
16	Kruger United	5	0	1	4	2	11	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando Pirates	Durban City
Kruger United	4-0 W	2-0 W
Sekhukhune United FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Amazulu	1-1 D	0-1 L
Orbit College	2-0 W	1-1 D
Stellenbosch FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Orlando Pirates (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orlando Pirates

DWWDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Kruger United South Africa Premier	1-0	4-0	3	0	W
25/08	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
16/08	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
12/08	Amazulu South Africa Premier	1-1	1-1	10	1	D
01/08	Milford FC South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
23/05	Orbit College South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
16/05	Durban City South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	19	7	D
09/05	Magesi FC South Africa Premier	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
05/05	Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
26/04	Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	8	0	D

Durban City

DDDDLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
25/08	Kruger United South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
15/08	Richards Bay FC South Africa Premier	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/08	Golden Arrows South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
01/08	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
23/05	Amazulu South Africa Premier	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
16/05	Orlando Pirates South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
08/05	Stellenbosch FC South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
05/05	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
24/04	Orbit College South Africa Premier	0-1	1-1	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando Pirates vs Durban City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando Pirates win (72%). Probabilities: Orlando Pirates 72%, draw 21%, Durban City 7%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando Pirates vs Durban City?

The model expects 1.86 goals (Orlando Pirates 1.58 · Durban City 0.28), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando Pirates vs Durban City?

The model gives a 60% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.