Football · South Africa Premier · 12/09, 17:30

Prediction: Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Team pages: Chippa United · Mamelodi Sundowns

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Chippa United0.74

Mamelodi Sundowns2.42

1X2

8% 18% 73%

Chippa United Draw Mamelodi Sundowns

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chippa United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLWDDLDD

Mamelodi Sundowns 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Chippa United 0–1–5 Mamelodi Sundowns (6 last)

Mamelodi Sundowns4-1Chippa United
Chippa United1-1Mamelodi Sundowns
Chippa United0-3Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns3-0Chippa United
Mamelodi Sundowns2-0Chippa United
Chippa United0-2Mamelodi Sundowns

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chippa United 1449 · Mamelodi Sundowns 1605

	Chippa United	Draw	Mamelodi Sundowns
Our model	9%	18%	74%
Market	8%	19%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns (rating 1449 vs 1605).
H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chippa United	Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	2.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.2	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

111.00

X4.75

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.90

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.89
2	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.29 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +17’	11.00	4.75	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +60’	10.15	4.89	1.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chippa United 0–1–5 Mamelodi Sundowns

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	4-1 HT 2-1	Chippa United
09/08/25 South Africa Premier	Chippa United	1-1 HT 0-1	Mamelodi Sundowns
14/05/25 South Africa Premier	Chippa United	0-3 HT 0-1	Mamelodi Sundowns
07/05/25 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	3-0 HT 2-0	Chippa United
09/03/24 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	2-0 HT 1-0	Chippa United
19/08/23 South Africa Premier	Chippa United	0-2 HT 0-2	Mamelodi Sundowns

Standings · South Africa Premier

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Orlando Pirates	5	4	1	0	12	1	13
3	Kaizer Chiefs	5	3	2	0	11	6	11
4	Amazulu	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
5	Milford FC	6	2	2	2	3	5	8
6	Sekhukhune United FC	5	2	1	2	3	4	7
7	Durban City	5	1	3	1	3	2	6
8	TS Galaxy	5	1	3	1	7	7	6
9	Golden Arrows	5	1	3	1	2	2	6
10	Polokwane City	5	1	3	1	7	8	6
11	Stellenbosch FC	5	1	2	2	6	6	5
12	Chippa United	5	0	4	1	2	5	4
13	Richards Bay FC	5	0	3	2	6	8	3
14	Marumo Gallants	5	0	2	3	5	10	2
15	Siwelele FC	6	0	2	4	5	12	2
16	Kruger United	5	0	1	4	2	11	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chippa United	Mamelodi Sundowns
Milford FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Siwelele FC	1-1 D	3-0 W
Golden Arrows	0-0 D	2-1 W
Kaizer Chiefs	1-0 W	1-1 D
TS Galaxy	1-1 D	3-2 W
Amazulu	1-5 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mamelodi Sundowns (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chippa United

LLDLWDDLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Milford FC South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
25/08	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
16/08	Orlando Pirates South Africa Premier	0-0	0-3	4	4	L
11/08	Richards Bay FC South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
01/08	Golden Arrows South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
23/05	Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/05	Golden Arrows South Africa Premier	0-2	0-2	5	0	L
09/05	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/05	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
25/04	Amazulu South Africa Premier	1-2	1-5	6	4	L

Mamelodi Sundowns

DWLWDWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	0-0	3-0	10	2	W
06/09	Golden Arrows South Africa Premier	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
02/09	Milford FC South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
26/08	Amazulu South Africa Premier	2-0	5-2	5	4	W
19/08	Marumo Gallants South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
15/08	Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/08	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	1-1	3-2	6	3	W
12/05	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	2-2	2-3	8	5	L
09/05	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	5-1	7-4	4	2	W
06/05	Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier	0-1	1-1	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mamelodi Sundowns win (73%). Probabilities: Chippa United 8%, draw 18%, Mamelodi Sundowns 73%.

How many goals are expected in Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Chippa United 0.74 · Mamelodi Sundowns 2.42), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.