Football · Paraguay Women League · 02/08, 22:15

Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Team pages: Deportivo Recoleta (W) · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.23Total

Deportivo Recoleta (W)1.39

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)2.84

1X2

15% 18% 66%

Deportivo Recoleta (W) Draw Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Recoleta (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo Recoleta (W) 0–1 Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (1 last)

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)1-0Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1430 · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1527

	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	Draw	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Our model	16%	17%	67%
Market	15%	19%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 4.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1430 vs 1527).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 1.9	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.75

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +2’	6.00	4.75	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 0–0–1 Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Paraguay Women League	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	14	12	2	0	69	6	38
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	12	10	2	0	52	2	32
3	Club Guarani (W)	14	9	3	2	28	16	30
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	14	8	3	3	48	10	27
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	14	7	1	6	41	32	22
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	15	7	1	7	26	31	22
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	12	5	2	5	15	18	17
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	13	4	2	7	17	32	14
9	2 de Mayo (W)	14	3	1	10	21	44	10
10	Rubio Nu (W)	13	2	4	7	11	35	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	14	1	3	10	8	55	6
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	13	0	2	11	9	64	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Libertad Limpeno (W)	0-4 L	1-3 L
Rubio Nu (W)	1-1 D	5-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	0-3 L	1-4 L
Club Guarani (W)	0-1 L	2-3 L
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	6-2 W	6-2 W
Cerro Porteno (W)	0-7 L	2-2 D
Nacional-Humaita (W)	2-1 W	4-1 W
2 de Mayo (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	0-3 L	6-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-4	0	5	L
20/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
12/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-2	3	3	W
16/05	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-3	0-7	0	0	L
09/05	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
03/05	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-2	0	1	L
23/04	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-3	1	6	L

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-2	6-2	11	4	W
20/07	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
05/07	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
28/06	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
31/05	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	4-1	6-1	2	5	W
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-7	0	2	L
17/05	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
09/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	5-0	6	5	W
02/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-4	5	10	L
26/04	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	2-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) win (66%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta (W) 15%, draw 18%, Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 66%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?

The model expects 4.23 goals (Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1.39 · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 2.84), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.