Football · Paraguay Women League · 10/08, 00:30

Prediction: Sportivo Luqueno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Team pages: Sportivo Luqueno (W) · Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Sportivo Luqueno (W)1.18

Deportivo Recoleta (W)2.12

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Sportivo Luqueno (W) Draw Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Luqueno (W) 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Recoleta (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo Luqueno (W) 2–2 Deportivo Recoleta (W) (4 last)

Deportivo Recoleta (W)0-3Sportivo Luqueno (W)
Sportivo Luqueno (W)4-0Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Sportivo Luqueno (W)0-4Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Deportivo Recoleta (W)3-2Sportivo Luqueno (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Luqueno (W) 1408 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1461

	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Recoleta (W) (rating 1408 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 3.8	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.8	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.3	1.6 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.10

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +18’	4.50	4.10	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Luqueno (W) 2–0–2 Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno (W)
14/11/25 Paraguay Copa EFE Women	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
11/08/25 Paraguay Women League	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
06/04/25 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	3-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Luqueno (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	15	13	2	0	72	6	41
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	14	12	2	0	60	2	38
3	Cerro Porteno (W)	15	9	3	3	54	10	30
4	Club Guarani (W)	15	9	3	3	28	19	30
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	15	7	1	7	42	34	22
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	16	7	1	8	26	37	22
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	13	6	2	5	18	18	20
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	15	5	2	8	19	35	17
9	Rubio Nu (W)	14	2	4	8	11	38	10
10	2 de Mayo (W)	15	3	1	11	21	50	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	15	1	4	10	8	55	7
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	14	0	3	11	9	64	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	0-0 D	6-2 W
Cerro Porteno (W)	0-6 L	0-7 L
Nacional-Humaita (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-7 L	0-2 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	1-6 L	2-1 W
Libertad Limpeno (W)	0-9 L	0-4 L
Rubio Nu (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Recoleta (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Luqueno (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/07	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-6	0	4	L
22/07	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
19/07	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
12/07	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
27/06	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-3	0-7	0	1	L
31/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-4	1-6	2	5	L
24/05	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-6	0-9	0	2	L
16/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	6	9	L

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
02/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
25/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-4	0	5	L
20/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
12/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-2	3	3	W
16/05	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-3	0-7	0	0	L
09/05	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	2-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Luqueno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Recoleta (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Sportivo Luqueno (W) 20%, draw 22%, Deportivo Recoleta (W) 58%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Luqueno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Sportivo Luqueno (W) 1.18 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 2.12), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Luqueno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.