Football · Paraguay Women League · 08/08, 23:00

Prediction: Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)

Team pages: Nacional-Humaita (W) · Cerro Porteno (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.13Total

Nacional-Humaita (W)1.07

Cerro Porteno (W)3.07

1X2

6% 12% 82%

Nacional-Humaita (W) Draw Cerro Porteno (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional-Humaita (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLWWL

Cerro Porteno (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWLDWW

Head-to-head

Nacional-Humaita (W) 0–1–5 Cerro Porteno (W) (6 last)

Cerro Porteno (W)6-1Nacional-Humaita (W)
Cerro Porteno (W)5-1Nacional-Humaita (W)
Nacional-Humaita (W)0-2Cerro Porteno (W)
Cerro Porteno (W)0-0Nacional-Humaita (W)
Nacional-Humaita (W)2-3Cerro Porteno (W)
Cerro Porteno (W)1-0Nacional-Humaita (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional-Humaita (W) 1471 · Cerro Porteno (W) 1575

	Nacional-Humaita (W)	Draw	Cerro Porteno (W)
Our model	9%	14%	76%
Market	4%	9%	87%

Estimated total (ours) 4.13 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (W) (rating 1471 vs 1575).
H2H favours Cerro Porteno (W): 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional-Humaita (W)	Cerro Porteno (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	3.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

123.00

X10.00

21.08

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.98

2 (-2.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	29.00 → 23.00▼	Bet365 23.00
X	11.00 → 10.00▼	Bet365 10.00
2	1.06 → 1.08▲	Bet365 1.08

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +1’	29.00	11.00	1.06
22:08 +4’	19.00▼	9.50▼	1.10▲
13:22 +11’	23.00▲	10.00▲	1.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional-Humaita (W) 0–1–5 Cerro Porteno (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Paraguay Women League	Cerro Porteno (W)	6-1 HT 2-1	Nacional-Humaita (W)
21/09/25 Paraguay Copa EFE Women	Cerro Porteno (W)	5-1 HT 1-1	Nacional-Humaita (W)
10/05/25 Paraguay Women League	Nacional-Humaita (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Cerro Porteno (W)
16/02/25 Paraguay Women League	Cerro Porteno (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Nacional-Humaita (W)
04/08/24 Paraguay Women League	Nacional-Humaita (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	Cerro Porteno (W)
19/05/24 Paraguay Women League	Cerro Porteno (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Nacional-Humaita (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	15	13	2	0	72	6	41
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	14	12	2	0	60	2	38
3	Cerro Porteno (W)	15	9	3	3	54	10	30
4	Club Guarani (W)	15	9	3	3	28	19	30
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	15	7	1	7	42	34	22
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	16	7	1	8	26	37	22
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	13	6	2	5	18	18	20
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	15	5	2	8	19	35	17
9	Rubio Nu (W)	14	2	4	8	11	38	10
10	2 de Mayo (W)	15	3	1	11	21	50	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	15	1	4	10	8	55	7
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	14	0	3	11	9	64	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional-Humaita (W)	Cerro Porteno (W)
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-6 L	0-0 D
2 de Mayo (W)	3-2 W	6-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	1-0 W	6-0 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	1-4 L	2-2 D
Libertad Limpeno (W)	1-3 L	0-1 L
Rubio Nu (W)	2-3 L	6-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Club Guarani (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
Deportivo Recoleta (W)	1-2 L	7-0 W
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	3-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (W) (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional-Humaita (W)

WLDWLLLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-4	0-6	2	5	L
26/07	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	3-2	7	5	W
19/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
05/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
27/06	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-3	1	1	L
31/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
17/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
09/05	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-2	9	1	L
03/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	3-1	4	3	W

Cerro Porteno (W)

DWWLDWLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	6-0	8	3	W
27/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-0	9	4	W
20/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	2-2	5	3	D
06/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
29/06	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-0	8	2	W
30/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
23/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/05	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	3-0	7-0	11	0	W
11/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	4-0	9	2	W
03/05	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerro Porteno (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Nacional-Humaita (W) 6%, draw 12%, Cerro Porteno (W) 82%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?

The model expects 4.13 goals (Nacional-Humaita (W) 1.07 · Cerro Porteno (W) 3.07), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.