Football · Paraguay Women League · 01/08, 20:30

Prediction: Cerro Porteno (W) vs 2 de Mayo (W)

Team pages: Cerro Porteno (W) · 2 de Mayo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.66Total

Cerro Porteno (W)3.33

2 de Mayo (W)1.33

1X2

85% 9% 6%

Cerro Porteno (W) Draw 2 de Mayo (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cerro Porteno (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDWLDW

2 de Mayo (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Cerro Porteno (W) 5–0 2 de Mayo (W) (5 last)

2 de Mayo (W)0-2Cerro Porteno (W)
Cerro Porteno (W)1-02 de Mayo (W)
2 de Mayo (W)1-4Cerro Porteno (W)
Cerro Porteno (W)6-02 de Mayo (W)
2 de Mayo (W)0-4Cerro Porteno (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerro Porteno (W) 1575 · 2 de Mayo (W) 1416

	Cerro Porteno (W)	Draw	2 de Mayo (W)
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	93%	5%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 4.66 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (W) (rating 1575 vs 1416).
H2H favours Cerro Porteno (W): 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerro Porteno (W)	2 de Mayo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 0.7	1.8 / 3.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.8	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.01

X21.00

241.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.98

2 (+4.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.80

Under 4.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01
X	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00
2	41.00 → 41.00	Bet365 41.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:30 +6’	1.01	21.00	41.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Porteno (W) 5–0–0 2 de Mayo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Paraguay Women League	2 de Mayo (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Cerro Porteno (W)
16/08/25 Paraguay Women League	Cerro Porteno (W)	1-0	2 de Mayo (W)
14/04/25 Paraguay Women League	2 de Mayo (W)	1-4 HT 1-2	Cerro Porteno (W)
10/08/24 Paraguay Women League	Cerro Porteno (W)	6-0 HT 3-0	2 de Mayo (W)
25/05/24 Paraguay Women League	2 de Mayo (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Cerro Porteno (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	14	12	2	0	69	6	38
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	12	10	2	0	52	2	32
3	Club Guarani (W)	14	9	3	2	28	16	30
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	14	8	3	3	48	10	27
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	14	7	1	6	41	32	22
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	15	7	1	7	26	31	22
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	12	5	2	5	15	18	17
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	13	4	2	7	17	32	14
9	2 de Mayo (W)	14	3	1	10	21	44	10
10	Rubio Nu (W)	13	2	4	7	11	35	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	14	1	3	10	8	55	6
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	13	0	2	11	9	64	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerro Porteno (W)	2 de Mayo (W)
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	6-0 W	2-2 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	2-2 D	1-3 L
Libertad Limpeno (W)	0-1 L	1-11 L
Rubio Nu (W)	6-0 W	1-3 L
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	1-1 D	2-4 L
Club Guarani (W)	1-2 L	2-4 L
Deportivo Recoleta (W)	7-0 W	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-0 D	0-5 L
Nacional-Humaita (W)	6-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (W) (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerro Porteno (W)

WDWWLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-0	9	4	W
20/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	2-2	5	3	D
06/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
29/06	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-0	8	2	W
30/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
23/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/05	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	3-0	7-0	11	0	W
11/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	4-0	9	2	W
03/05	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
26/04	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	6-1	11	1	W

2 de Mayo (W)

WLLLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
22/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
18/07	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
12/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
28/06	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
31/05	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-11	0	2	L
24/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-3	6	11	L
16/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	2-2	2-4	4	4	L
10/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	–	2-4	–	–	L
03/05	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	2-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerro Porteno (W) vs 2 de Mayo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Porteno (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Cerro Porteno (W) 85%, draw 9%, 2 de Mayo (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in Cerro Porteno (W) vs 2 de Mayo (W)?

The model expects 4.66 goals (Cerro Porteno (W) 3.33 · 2 de Mayo (W) 1.33), with a 51% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerro Porteno (W) vs 2 de Mayo (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.