Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 01/08, 09:00

Prediction: Dandenong Thunder vs Dandenong City

Team pages: Dandenong Thunder · Dandenong City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Dandenong Thunder1.13

Dandenong City1.94

1X2

21% 23% 55%

Dandenong Thunder Draw Dandenong City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dandenong Thunder 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLWLL

Dandenong City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDLLD

Head-to-head

Dandenong Thunder 4–1–1 Dandenong City (6 last)

Dandenong City0-1Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder0-1Dandenong City
Dandenong City1-2Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder2-2Dandenong City
Dandenong Thunder1-0Dandenong City
Dandenong City1-2Dandenong Thunder

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dandenong Thunder 1405 · Dandenong City 1502

	Dandenong Thunder	Draw	Dandenong City
Our model	21%	24%	55%
Market	21%	23%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dandenong City (rating 1405 vs 1502).
H2H favours Dandenong Thunder: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dandenong Thunder	Dandenong City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 3.2	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.90

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +24’	4.20	3.90	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dandenong Thunder 4–1–1 Dandenong City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	0-1 HT 0-0	Dandenong Thunder
30/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	0-1 HT 0-1	Dandenong City
30/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	1-2 HT 0-0	Dandenong Thunder
22/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	2-2 HT 2-1	Dandenong City
22/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	1-0 HT 0-0	Dandenong City
15/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	1-2 HT 0-2	Dandenong Thunder

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	22	14	5	3	45	20	47
2	Hume City	22	12	4	6	42	28	40
3	Avondale	22	12	2	8	57	30	38
4	Preston Lions	21	13	3	5	31	16	36
5	South Melbourne	22	11	2	9	33	33	35
6	Heidelberg Utd	22	9	7	6	33	26	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	22	7	10	5	28	28	31
8	Melbourne City FC 2	21	8	6	7	39	26	30
9	St Albans Saints	22	7	6	9	27	39	27
10	Altona Magic	22	7	5	10	26	36	26
11	Dandenong City	22	7	6	9	27	29	23
12	Bentleigh Greens	22	5	4	13	20	46	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	22	4	3	15	23	48	15
14	Green Gully	22	3	5	14	17	43	14

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dandenong Thunder	Dandenong City
Green Gully	1-3 L	0-0 D
Bentleigh Greens	2-1 W	1-2 L
South Melbourne	0-1 L	0-2 L
Hume City	1-3 L	0-0 D
Avondale	0-11 L	3-1 W
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-3 L	2-3 L
Heidelberg Utd	2-4 L	4-1 W
Melbourne City FC 2	0-2 L	1-0 W
St Albans Saints	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 7 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Dandenong City (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dandenong Thunder

DLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
17/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
11/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
05/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
20/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	0-11	3	2	L
06/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-3	4	7	L
29/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-4	4	2	L
24/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
16/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-2	3	2	D

Dandenong City

DWWWLWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
17/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
10/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
26/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	4	W
20/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	2-3	9	4	L
05/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-1	4	0	W
30/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
22/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-1	3	0	W
15/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dandenong Thunder vs Dandenong City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dandenong City win (55%). Probabilities: Dandenong Thunder 21%, draw 23%, Dandenong City 55%.

How many goals are expected in Dandenong Thunder vs Dandenong City?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Dandenong Thunder 1.13 · Dandenong City 1.94), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dandenong Thunder vs Dandenong City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.