Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 01/08, 06:00

Prediction: Hume City vs Melbourne City FC 2

Team pages: Hume City · Melbourne City FC 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Hume City1.96

Melbourne City FC 21.14

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Hume City Draw Melbourne City FC 2

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hume City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne City FC 2 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hume City 1–0 Melbourne City FC 2 (1 last)

Melbourne City FC 20-1Hume City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hume City 1534 · Melbourne City FC 2 1509

	Hume City	Draw	Melbourne City FC 2
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	56%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hume City	Melbourne City FC 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +2’	1.60	4.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hume City 1–0–0 Melbourne City FC 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Melbourne City FC 2	0-1 HT 0-0	Hume City

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	22	14	5	3	45	20	47
2	Hume City	22	12	4	6	42	28	40
3	Avondale	22	12	2	8	57	30	38
4	Preston Lions	21	13	3	5	31	16	36
5	South Melbourne	22	11	2	9	33	33	35
6	Heidelberg Utd	22	9	7	6	33	26	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	22	7	10	5	28	28	31
8	Melbourne City FC 2	21	8	6	7	39	26	30
9	St Albans Saints	22	7	6	9	27	39	27
10	Altona Magic	22	7	5	10	26	36	26
11	Dandenong City	22	7	6	9	27	29	23
12	Bentleigh Greens	22	5	4	13	20	46	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	22	4	3	15	23	48	15
14	Green Gully	22	3	5	14	17	43	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hume City	Melbourne City FC 2
St Albans Saints	2-3 L	2-0 W
Oakleigh Cannons	0-1 L	1-3 L
Dandenong City	0-0 D	0-1 L
Dandenong Thunder	3-1 W	2-0 W
Green Gully	3-2 W	3-1 W
Bentleigh Greens	5-1 W	7-0 W
Altona Magic	3-1 W	3-0 W
Avondale	3-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne City FC 2 (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hume City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-3	2-3	2	5	L
18/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
10/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
04/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
27/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
20/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
05/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	8	0	W
30/05	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
23/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
16/05	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-0	3	5	W

Melbourne City FC 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-3	3	5	L
18/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
11/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
04/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
26/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
30/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/05	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
08/05	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	6-0	7-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hume City vs Melbourne City FC 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hume City win (56%). Probabilities: Hume City 56%, draw 23%, Melbourne City FC 2 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hume City vs Melbourne City FC 2?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Hume City 1.96 · Melbourne City FC 2 1.14), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hume City vs Melbourne City FC 2?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.