Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 31/07, 12:30

Prediction: Preston Lions vs Green Gully

Team pages: Preston Lions · Green Gully

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Preston Lions2.03

Green Gully0.64

1X2

70% 19% 11%

Preston Lions Draw Green Gully

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWW

Green Gully 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWLWD

Head-to-head

Preston Lions 3–0 Green Gully (3 last)

Green Gully0-4Preston Lions
Green Gully0-1Preston Lions
Preston Lions3-2Green Gully

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions 1614 · Green Gully 1444

	Preston Lions	Draw	Green Gully
Our model	69%	21%	10%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1614 vs 1444).
H2H favours Preston Lions: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions	Green Gully
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 7.2	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +5’	1.27	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions 3–0–0 Green Gully

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	0-4 HT 0-2	Preston Lions
15/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	0-1 HT 0-0	Preston Lions
02/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	3-2 HT 2-1	Green Gully

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	22	14	5	3	45	20	47
2	Hume City	22	12	4	6	42	28	40
3	Avondale	22	12	2	8	57	30	38
4	Preston Lions	21	13	3	5	31	16	36
5	South Melbourne	22	11	2	9	33	33	35
6	Heidelberg Utd	22	9	7	6	33	26	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	22	7	10	5	28	28	31
8	Melbourne City FC 2	21	8	6	7	39	26	30
9	St Albans Saints	22	7	6	9	27	39	27
10	Altona Magic	22	7	5	10	26	36	26
11	Dandenong City	22	7	6	9	27	29	23
12	Bentleigh Greens	22	5	4	13	20	46	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	22	4	3	15	23	48	15
14	Green Gully	22	3	5	14	17	43	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions	Green Gully
Bentleigh Greens	1-0 W	3-0 W
South Melbourne	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hume City	2-1 W	2-3 L
Avondale	3-2 W	0-2 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Heidelberg Utd	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Preston Lions

WWWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/07	Newcastle Jets Australia Cup	0-2	3-2	6	1	W
18/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
07/07	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Cup	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
04/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	3-2	6	5	W
27/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
31/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	6-0	8	0	W

Green Gully

LLDLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
10/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
03/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
28/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
20/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
05/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
30/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
22/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
15/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions vs Green Gully?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston Lions win (70%). Probabilities: Preston Lions 70%, draw 19%, Green Gully 11%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions vs Green Gully?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Preston Lions 2.03 · Green Gully 0.64), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions vs Green Gully?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.