Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 02/08, 07:30

Prediction: South Melbourne vs St Albans Saints

Team pages: South Melbourne · St Albans Saints

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

South Melbourne2.02

St Albans Saints1.15

1X2

57% 23% 20%

South Melbourne Draw St Albans Saints

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

South Melbourne 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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St Albans Saints 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLDDDW

Head-to-head

South Melbourne 4–1–1 St Albans Saints (6 last)

St Albans Saints0-4South Melbourne
St Albans Saints2-2South Melbourne
South Melbourne0-3St Albans Saints
South Melbourne2-1St Albans Saints
South Melbourne1-0St Albans Saints
St Albans Saints1-4South Melbourne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Melbourne 1521 · St Albans Saints 1476

	South Melbourne	Draw	St Albans Saints
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Melbourne (rating 1521 vs 1476).
H2H favours South Melbourne: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Melbourne	St Albans Saints
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.7	2.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +4’	1.57	4.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne 4–1–1 St Albans Saints

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	St Albans Saints	0-4 HT 0-1	South Melbourne
06/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria	St Albans Saints	2-2 HT 0-1	South Melbourne
03/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	0-3 HT 0-2	St Albans Saints
18/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	2-1 HT 1-1	St Albans Saints
12/06/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	South Melbourne	1-0 HT 0-0	St Albans Saints
12/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria	St Albans Saints	1-4 HT 1-2	South Melbourne

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	22	14	5	3	45	20	47
2	Hume City	22	12	4	6	42	28	40
3	Avondale	22	12	2	8	57	30	38
4	Preston Lions	21	13	3	5	31	16	36
5	South Melbourne	22	11	2	9	33	33	35
6	Heidelberg Utd	22	9	7	6	33	26	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	22	7	10	5	28	28	31
8	Melbourne City FC 2	21	8	6	7	39	26	30
9	St Albans Saints	22	7	6	9	27	39	27
10	Altona Magic	22	7	5	10	26	36	26
11	Dandenong City	22	7	6	9	27	29	23
12	Bentleigh Greens	22	5	4	13	20	46	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	22	4	3	15	23	48	15
14	Green Gully	22	3	5	14	17	43	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Melbourne	St Albans Saints
Oakleigh Cannons	2-1 W	2-2 D
Preston Lions	0-0 D	0-1 L
Dandenong City	2-0 W	1-2 L
Dandenong Thunder	1-0 W	2-2 D
Altona Magic	2-3 L	2-1 W
Hume City	1-1 D	3-2 W
Avondale	0-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

South Melbourne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
18/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
05/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
19/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	10	2	W
07/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	2-3	6	2	L
30/05	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
25/05	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
24/05	Auckland FC II OFC Pro League	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

St Albans Saints

DLLDWLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	3-2	5	5	W
18/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
26/06	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	12	3	L
21/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
05/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
31/05	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
22/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
16/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-2	12	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Melbourne vs St Albans Saints?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Melbourne win (57%). Probabilities: South Melbourne 57%, draw 23%, St Albans Saints 20%.

How many goals are expected in South Melbourne vs St Albans Saints?

The model expects 3.17 goals (South Melbourne 2.02 · St Albans Saints 1.15), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in South Melbourne vs St Albans Saints?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.