Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 01/08, 07:00

Prediction: Avondale vs Heidelberg Utd

Team pages: Avondale · Heidelberg Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Avondale1.71

Heidelberg Utd1.37

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Avondale Draw Heidelberg Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Avondale 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLLLDW

Heidelberg Utd 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDDDWD

Head-to-head

Avondale 1–3–2 Heidelberg Utd (6 last)

Heidelberg Utd2-1Avondale
Avondale2-1Heidelberg Utd
Heidelberg Utd3-1Avondale
Heidelberg Utd1-1Avondale
Avondale0-0Heidelberg Utd
Heidelberg Utd1-1Avondale

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avondale 1502 · Heidelberg Utd 1529

	Avondale	Draw	Heidelberg Utd
Our model	45%	26%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Heidelberg Utd: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avondale	Heidelberg Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.9	3.4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +23’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale 1–3–2 Heidelberg Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	2-1 HT 0-0	Avondale
02/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	2-1 HT 0-1	Heidelberg Utd
25/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	3-1 HT 3-0	Avondale
28/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	1-1 HT 0-0	Avondale
23/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	0-0 HT 0-0	Heidelberg Utd
15/07/23 Australia Victoria Premier League	Heidelberg Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Avondale

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	22	14	5	3	45	20	47
2	Hume City	22	12	4	6	42	28	40
3	Avondale	22	12	2	8	57	30	38
4	Preston Lions	21	13	3	5	31	16	36
5	South Melbourne	22	11	2	9	33	33	35
6	Heidelberg Utd	22	9	7	6	33	26	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	22	7	10	5	28	28	31
8	Melbourne City FC 2	21	8	6	7	39	26	30
9	St Albans Saints	22	7	6	9	27	39	27
10	Altona Magic	22	7	5	10	26	36	26
11	Dandenong City	22	7	6	9	27	29	23
12	Bentleigh Greens	22	5	4	13	20	46	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	22	4	3	15	23	48	15
14	Green Gully	22	3	5	14	17	43	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avondale	Heidelberg Utd
Melbourne City FC 2	3-2 W	2-2 D
St Albans Saints	1-1 D	1-1 D
Oakleigh Cannons	0-2 L	0-1 L
Preston Lions	2-3 L	0-1 L
Dandenong City	1-3 L	1-4 L
Dandenong Thunder	11-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Avondale (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Avondale

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	3-2	8	5	W
18/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
10/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
04/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-3	9	5	L
26/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
20/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	3-0	11-0	9	2	W
10/06	Midleton FC Republic of Ireland Munster Senior League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
02/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	2-3	2	4	L
30/05	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-0	9	2	W

Heidelberg Utd

WLLLWDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
21/07	Cumberland United Australia Cup	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
18/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
11/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
03/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/06	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
20/06	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
05/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-4	12	0	L
29/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	4-2	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avondale vs Heidelberg Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avondale win (45%). Probabilities: Avondale 45%, draw 25%, Heidelberg Utd 30%.

How many goals are expected in Avondale vs Heidelberg Utd?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Avondale 1.71 · Heidelberg Utd 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Avondale vs Heidelberg Utd?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.