Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/08, 02:00

Prediction: Club Atletico Libertad vs Orense

Team pages: Club Atletico Libertad · Orense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Club Atletico Libertad1.21

Orense1.35

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Club Atletico Libertad Draw Orense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico Libertad 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDWLWW

Orense 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Club Atletico Libertad 3–3 Orense (6 last)

Orense2-1Club Atletico Libertad
Orense3-2Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad2-0Orense
Orense0-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad4-1Orense
Orense1-0Club Atletico Libertad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico Libertad 1503 · Orense 1451

	Club Atletico Libertad	Draw	Orense
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1503 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico Libertad	Orense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.3	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.20

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.08 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +5’	2.88	3.20	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:10	3.08	3.17	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 3–0–3 Orense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	2-1 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Libertad
21/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	3-2 HT 0-2	Club Atletico Libertad
05/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	2-0 HT 1-0	Orense
13/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Atletico Libertad
15/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	4-1 HT 1-0	Orense
19/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	1-0 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	21	10	5	6	33	19	35
3	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
4	SD Aucas	22	10	5	7	24	25	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Emelec	21	7	7	7	18	24	28
9	Deportivo Cuenca	21	8	4	9	19	26	28
10	Guayaquil City	21	7	6	8	19	23	27
11	Tecnico Universitario	22	8	2	12	20	24	26
12	Orense	22	7	5	10	27	32	26
13	Mushuc Runa	21	6	7	8	27	31	25
14	Club Atletico Libertad	21	6	6	9	19	26	24
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	22	3	5	14	8	27	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico Libertad	Orense
Mushuc Runa	2-0 W	1-2 L
Tecnico Universitario	1-0 W	1-2 L
LDU Quito	0-0 D	0-3 L
Manta FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Independiente del Valle	3-2 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Club Atletico Libertad

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
21/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
30/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
23/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-2	1	6	W
20/05	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
16/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Orense

WLLLLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	11	6	L
23/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
20/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
11/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
07/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
02/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
23/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
19/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Libertad vs Orense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Orense win (39%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Libertad 32%, draw 29%, Orense 39%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Libertad vs Orense?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Club Atletico Libertad 1.21 · Orense 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico Libertad vs Orense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.