Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 02/08, 22:00

Prediction: Leones FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil

Team pages: Leones FC · Barcelona Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Leones FC0.89

Barcelona Guayaquil1.24

1X2

26% 31% 43%

Leones FC Draw Barcelona Guayaquil

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Leones FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWDWDW

Barcelona Guayaquil 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDDWLL

Head-to-head

Leones FC 0–1 Barcelona Guayaquil (1 last)

Barcelona Guayaquil2-1Leones FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones FC 1555 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1497

	Leones FC	Draw	Barcelona Guayaquil
Our model	25%	32%	43%
Market	26%	30%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones FC (rating 1555 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones FC	Barcelona Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.37 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18	3.50	3.10	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:18	3.05	3.17	2.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones FC 0–0–1 Barcelona Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 HT 1-0	Leones FC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	21	10	5	6	33	19	35
3	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
4	SD Aucas	22	10	5	7	24	25	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Emelec	21	7	7	7	18	24	28
9	Deportivo Cuenca	21	8	4	9	19	26	28
10	Guayaquil City	21	7	6	8	19	23	27
11	Tecnico Universitario	22	8	2	12	20	24	26
12	Orense	22	7	5	10	27	32	26
13	Mushuc Runa	21	6	7	8	27	31	25
14	Club Atletico Libertad	21	6	6	9	19	26	24
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	22	3	5	14	8	27	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones FC	Barcelona Guayaquil
Delfin SC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Guayaquil City	1-1 D	1-1 D
LDU Quito	1-0 W	0-1 L
Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 D	2-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-0 W	1-2 L
Club Atletico Libertad	3-1 W	1-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leones FC

WLWDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W
02/06	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
30/05	Huaquillas FC Ecuador Cup	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/05	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
17/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	4	4	W

Barcelona Guayaquil

LWLLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
19/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/06	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
29/05	Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
25/05	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
22/05	Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barcelona Guayaquil win (43%). Probabilities: Leones FC 26%, draw 31%, Barcelona Guayaquil 43%.

How many goals are expected in Leones FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Leones FC 0.89 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones FC vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.