Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 02/08, 20:00
Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
Independiente del Valle2.54
Deportivo Cuenca0.89
1X2
Independiente del Valle
Draw
Deportivo Cuenca
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente del Valle
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Cuenca
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente del Valle
5–1
Deportivo Cuenca
(6 last)
- Deportivo Cuenca2-3Independiente del Valle
- Deportivo Cuenca0-3Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle4-0Deportivo Cuenca
- Deportivo Cuenca1-0Independiente del Valle
- Deportivo Cuenca0-2Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle1-0Deportivo Cuenca
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1658 · Deportivo Cuenca 1459
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Deportivo Cuenca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1658 vs 1459).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle | Deportivo Cuenca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 5.9 | 1.8 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 5–0–1 Deportivo Cuenca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 28/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 06/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Cuenca |
| 01/02/25 America Friendlies | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 25/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 05/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Cuenca |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 52 | 20 | 52 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 21 | 35 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 16 | 34 |
| 5 | Macara | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 32 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 17 | 29 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 28 |
| 8 | Emelec | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cuenca | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 28 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 27 |
| 11 | Orense | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 12 | Tecnico Universitario | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 26 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 25 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 20 | 23 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 27 | 14 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
Deportivo Cuenca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/07 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/06 | CD La Union Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (72%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 72%, draw 17%, Deportivo Cuenca 10%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca?
The model expects 3.43 goals (Independiente del Valle 2.54 · Deportivo Cuenca 0.89), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.