Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 02/08, 18:30
Prediction: Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad Catolica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Deportes Concepcion1.13
Universidad Catolica1.92
1X2
Deportes Concepcion
Draw
Universidad Catolica
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportes Concepcion
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Universidad Catolica
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportes Concepcion
0–1
Universidad Catolica
(1 last)
- Universidad Catolica2-0Deportes Concepcion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportes Concepcion 1525 · Universidad Catolica 1615
| Deportes Concepcion | Draw | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Market | 20% | 26% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (rating 1525 vs 1615).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportes Concepcion | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 3.4 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Concepcion 0–0–1 Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Concepcion |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 16 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 24 |
| 5 | Palestino | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 6 | Huachipato | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 24 |
| 7 | Everton de Vina | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | Nublense | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | O'Higgins | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 20 |
| 11 | La Serena | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 28 | 19 |
| 12 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportes Concepcion | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 14 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportes Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Puerto Montt Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | Deportes Temuco Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Huachipato Chile Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/06 | Puerto Montt Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 25/06 | Huachipato Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | Deportes Temuco Chile Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 24/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 11/07 | San Luis Quillota Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 05/07 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 01/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Cup |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 20/06 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Cobresal Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad Catolica?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica win (54%). Probabilities: Deportes Concepcion 21%, draw 25%, Universidad Catolica 54%.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad Catolica?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Deportes Concepcion 1.13 · Universidad Catolica 1.92), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad Catolica?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.