Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 09/08, 18:30
Prediction: Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad de Concepcion
Team pages: Deportes Concepcion · Universidad de Concepcion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Deportes Concepcion1.74
Universidad de Concepcion1.45
1X2
Deportes Concepcion
Draw
Universidad de Concepcion
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportes Concepcion
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Universidad de Concepcion
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportes Concepcion
3–1–2
Universidad de Concepcion
(6 last)
- Universidad de Concepcion2-1Deportes Concepcion
- Deportes Concepcion1-4Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion1-2Deportes Concepcion
- Deportes Concepcion1-0Universidad de Concepcion
- Deportes Concepcion0-0Universidad de Concepcion
- Deportes Concepcion1-0Universidad de Concepcion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportes Concepcion 1553 · Universidad de Concepcion 1468
| Deportes Concepcion | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Concepcion (rating 1553 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Deportes Concepcion: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportes Concepcion | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.3 | 1.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Concepcion 3–1–2 Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Deportes Concepcion |
| 24/08/25 Chile Primera B | Deportes Concepcion | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 20/04/25 Chile Primera B | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Deportes Concepcion |
| 13/02/25 America Friendlies | Deportes Concepcion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 18/02/24 Club Friendly List | Deportes Concepcion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 16/06/21 Chile Cup | Deportes Concepcion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 17 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 16 | 42 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Palestino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 5 | Nublense | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 25 |
| 6 | Coquimbo Unido | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 24 |
| 8 | Everton de Vina | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 23 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | O'Higgins | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 20 |
| 11 | Audax Italiano | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 23 | 19 |
| 12 | La Serena | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 28 | 19 |
| 13 | Universidad de Concepcion | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 19 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 32 | 17 |
| 15 | Deportes Concepcion | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 23 | 17 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 13 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportes Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | Puerto Montt Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | Deportes Temuco Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Huachipato Chile Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/06 | Puerto Montt Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 25/06 | Huachipato Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | Deportes Temuco Chile Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 01/07 | Nublense Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 26/06 | Nublense Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Nublense Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad de Concepcion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Concepcion win (42%). Probabilities: Deportes Concepcion 42%, draw 27%, Universidad de Concepcion 30%.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Deportes Concepcion 1.74 · Universidad de Concepcion 1.45), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportes Concepcion vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.