Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 11/08, 02:00

Prediction: Audax Italiano vs Nublense

Team pages: Audax Italiano · Nublense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Audax Italiano1.26

Nublense1.03

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Audax Italiano Draw Nublense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Audax Italiano 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWLWLW

Nublense 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Audax Italiano 4–2 Nublense (6 last)

Nublense1-0Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano1-0Nublense
Nublense2-3Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano0-1Nublense
Nublense1-2Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano1-0Nublense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Audax Italiano 1532 · Nublense 1554

	Audax Italiano	Draw	Nublense
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Audax Italiano: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Audax Italiano	Nublense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.41 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.27
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +1’	2.25	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:14	2.35	3.24	3.12
21:21 +13’	2.41▲	3.27▲	2.99▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Audax Italiano 4–0–2 Nublense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-0 HT 1-0	Audax Italiano
02/12/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	1-0 HT 1-0	Nublense
16/06/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	2-3 HT 1-2	Audax Italiano
04/08/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	0-1 HT 0-1	Nublense
03/03/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-2 HT 0-1	Audax Italiano
09/10/23 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	1-0 HT 0-0	Nublense

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	17	14	0	3	36	16	42
2	Universidad Catolica	18	9	3	6	40	26	30
3	Universidad de Chile	17	8	6	3	21	11	30
4	Palestino	17	8	3	6	25	24	27
5	Everton de Vina	18	7	5	6	27	21	26
6	Nublense	16	6	7	3	20	19	25
7	Coquimbo Unido	16	7	3	6	23	20	24
8	Huachipato	18	7	3	8	27	31	24
9	O'Higgins	17	7	2	8	21	25	23
10	Deportes Limache	16	6	3	7	31	26	21
11	Deportes Concepcion	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
12	Audax Italiano	17	5	4	8	20	23	19
13	La Serena	17	4	7	6	25	30	19
14	Universidad de Concepcion	16	5	4	7	13	27	19
15	Cobresal	18	5	2	11	26	34	17
16	Union La Calera	17	3	4	10	15	33	13

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Audax Italiano	Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion	1-0 W	1-0 W
Palestino	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nublense (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Audax Italiano

DDLWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
26/07	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/07	Magallanes Chile Cup	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
05/07	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
01/07	Palestino Chile Cup	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
27/06	Magallanes Chile Cup	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
24/06	Palestino Chile Cup	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
20/06	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
13/06	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
07/06	Universidad de Chile Chile Copa de la Liga	2-1	2-2	3	4	D

Nublense

DLWWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Cup	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
26/07	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
13/07	O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
10/07	O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
05/07	Curico Unido Chile Cup	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
01/07	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
28/06	Rangers de Talca Chile Cup	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup	1-1	4-2	7	4	W
21/06	Curico Unido Chile Cup	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
14/06	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-2	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Audax Italiano vs Nublense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Audax Italiano win (41%). Probabilities: Audax Italiano 41%, draw 30%, Nublense 29%.

How many goals are expected in Audax Italiano vs Nublense?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Audax Italiano 1.26 · Nublense 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Audax Italiano vs Nublense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.