Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 10/08, 02:00

Prediction: Universidad de Chile vs Palestino

Team pages: Universidad de Chile · Palestino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Universidad de Chile1.73

Palestino1.18

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Universidad de Chile Draw Palestino

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad de Chile 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWLWWW

Palestino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWWLW

Head-to-head

Universidad de Chile 3–1–2 Palestino (6 last)

Universidad de Chile1-2Palestino
Palestino0-0Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile2-1Palestino
Palestino2-3Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile1-0Palestino
Universidad de Chile0-1Palestino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad de Chile 1561 · Palestino 1525

	Universidad de Chile	Draw	Palestino
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad de Chile: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad de Chile	Palestino
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	5.1 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.02 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.84

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +2’	1.90	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:42	2.02	3.32	3.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Chile 3–1–2 Palestino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Universidad de Chile	1-2 HT 0-0	Palestino
14/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Palestino	0-0 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile
13/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	2-1 HT 2-1	Palestino
27/04/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Palestino	2-3 HT 0-1	Universidad de Chile
15/09/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	1-0 HT 0-0	Palestino
10/09/24 Chile Cup	Universidad de Chile	0-1 HT 0-0	Palestino

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	17	14	0	3	36	16	42
2	Universidad de Chile	17	8	6	3	21	11	30
3	Universidad Catolica	17	8	3	6	38	26	27
4	Palestino	17	8	3	6	25	24	27
5	Nublense	16	6	7	3	20	19	25
6	Coquimbo Unido	16	7	3	6	23	20	24
7	Huachipato	17	7	3	7	26	27	24
8	Everton de Vina	17	6	5	6	23	20	23
9	O'Higgins	17	7	2	8	21	25	23
10	Deportes Limache	16	6	3	7	31	26	21
11	Deportes Concepcion	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
12	Audax Italiano	17	5	4	8	20	23	19
13	La Serena	17	4	7	6	25	30	19
14	Universidad de Concepcion	16	5	4	7	13	27	19
15	Cobresal	17	5	2	10	26	32	17
16	Union La Calera	17	3	4	10	15	33	13

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad de Chile	Palestino
Audax Italiano	2-1 W	2-3 L
O'Higgins	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Universidad de Chile

DDWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	13	3	W
26/07	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
05/07	Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
02/07	Union La Calera Chile Cup	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
28/06	Union San Felipe Chile Cup	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
25/06	Union La Calera Chile Cup	1-2	3-3	9	7	D
21/06	Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup	2-0	4-1	2	5	W
19/06	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
14/06	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
07/06	Audax Italiano Chile Copa de la Liga	1-2	2-2	7	4	D

Palestino

LWWLDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/07	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
11/07	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup	1-0	3-2	10	8	W
04/07	Magallanes Chile Cup	2-1	2-1	11	8	W
01/07	Audax Italiano Chile Cup	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
27/06	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
24/06	Audax Italiano Chile Cup	0-1	1-2	7	9	L
20/06	Magallanes Chile Cup	2-0	4-1	7	3	W
13/06	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
08/06	O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga	0-2	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad de Chile win (49%). Probabilities: Universidad de Chile 49%, draw 27%, Palestino 25%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Universidad de Chile 1.73 · Palestino 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Palestino?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.