Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 22/08, 08:30

Prediction: Darwin Hearts vs University Azzurri FC

Team pages: Darwin Hearts · University Azzurri FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.4Total

Darwin Hearts1.53

University Azzurri FC2.88

1X2

18% 16% 65%

Darwin Hearts Draw University Azzurri FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Hearts 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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University Azzurri FC 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Darwin Hearts 1–1–4 University Azzurri FC (6 last)

University Azzurri FC4-1Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts1-3University Azzurri FC
Darwin Hearts1-1University Azzurri FC
Darwin Hearts0-2University Azzurri FC
Darwin Hearts4-0University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC1-0Darwin Hearts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Hearts 1520 · University Azzurri FC 1634

	Darwin Hearts	Draw	University Azzurri FC
Our model	18%	17%	65%
Market	19%	15%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1520 vs 1634).
H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Hearts	University Azzurri FC
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 2.5	4.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 1.2	2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.75

X6.00

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 1.75 · xG: 5.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:46 +9’	4.75	6.00	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Hearts 1–1–4 University Azzurri FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	4-1 HT 3-1	Darwin Hearts
02/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Darwin Hearts	1-3 HT 1-0	University Azzurri FC
22/03/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	1-1 HT 0-1	University Azzurri FC
20/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	0-2 HT 0-0	University Azzurri FC
23/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	4-0 HT 2-0	University Azzurri FC
13/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Darwin Hearts

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	19	17	1	1	81	19	52
2	Mindil Aces	19	13	1	5	69	19	40
3	Darwin Olympic	20	10	4	6	59	36	34
4	Port Darwin FC	17	11	1	5	61	41	34
5	Darwin Hearts	19	10	3	6	51	42	33
6	Casuarina FC	19	5	3	11	34	47	18
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	19	5	1	13	37	85	16
8	Hellenic AC	20	4	3	13	26	56	15
9	Garuda FC	20	1	3	16	21	94	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Hearts	University Azzurri FC
Mindil Aces	2-4 L	3-2 W
Palmerston Rovers FC	8-3 W	10-2 W
Garuda FC	3-2 W	10-0 W
Hellenic AC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Darwin Olympic	3-2 W	4-2 W
Casuarina FC	2-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Darwin Hearts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	2-4	2	1	L
09/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	8-3	8	3	W
31/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-4	4	6	D
23/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	0	W
18/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
28/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	3-2	5	2	W
25/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
21/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
06/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-4	6	2	L
31/05	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-4	3-4	5	1	L

University Azzurri FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-0	10-2	8	2	W
08/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-2	3	3	W
01/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
25/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-1	10	2	W
22/07	Macarthur FC Australia Cup	0-1	0-3	0	2	L
03/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	0	W
26/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	10-0	4	3	W
19/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
14/06	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-1	6	4	W
06/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	6-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Hearts vs University Azzurri FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an University Azzurri FC win (65%). Probabilities: Darwin Hearts 18%, draw 16%, University Azzurri FC 65%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Hearts vs University Azzurri FC?

The model expects 4.4 goals (Darwin Hearts 1.53 · University Azzurri FC 2.88), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Hearts vs University Azzurri FC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.