Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 30/08, 10:30

Prediction: Port Darwin FC vs Mindil Aces

Team pages: Port Darwin FC · Mindil Aces

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.47Total

Port Darwin FC1.49

Mindil Aces2.98

1X2

16% 16% 67%

Port Darwin FC Draw Mindil Aces

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Port Darwin FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLDWLLL

Mindil Aces 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLWD

Head-to-head

Port Darwin FC 1–2–3 Mindil Aces (6 last)

Mindil Aces8-0Port Darwin FC
Port Darwin FC1-3Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces1-1Port Darwin FC
Port Darwin FC3-2Mindil Aces
Port Darwin FC2-2Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces2-1Port Darwin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Port Darwin FC 1449 · Mindil Aces 1603

	Port Darwin FC	Draw	Mindil Aces
Our model	16%	17%	67%
Market	16%	16%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 4.47 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mindil Aces (rating 1449 vs 1603).
H2H favours Mindil Aces: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Port Darwin FC	Mindil Aces
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 3.4	3.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	3.6 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X5.50

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.90

2 (-1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 5.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:27 +3’	5.50	5.50	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Port Darwin FC 1–2–3 Mindil Aces

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	8-0 HT 4-0	Port Darwin FC
26/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	1-3 HT 1-2	Mindil Aces
22/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	1-1 HT 0-1	Port Darwin FC
14/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
22/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Port Darwin FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
12/04/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	2-1 HT 2-0	Port Darwin FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	22	19	2	1	92	22	59
2	Mindil Aces	21	14	2	5	75	20	44
3	Darwin Olympic	21	11	4	6	61	36	37
4	Port Darwin FC	20	11	1	8	63	52	34
5	Darwin Hearts	21	10	3	8	54	48	33
6	Casuarina FC	20	6	3	11	37	49	21
7	Hellenic AC	22	5	4	13	30	58	19
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	21	6	1	14	39	91	19
9	Garuda FC	22	1	4	17	23	98	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Port Darwin FC	Mindil Aces
Palmerston Rovers FC	1-2 L	5-0 W
Hellenic AC	0-2 L	4-1 W
University Azzurri FC	1-7 L	1-1 D
Garuda FC	4-1 W	11-0 W
Darwin Hearts	4-4 D	4-2 W
Darwin Olympic	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Port Darwin FC

WLLWLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
19/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-7	5	2	L
09/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	4-1	7	4	W
31/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-4	3	6	D
25/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
02/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-3	3	5	W
25/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	1-3	5	1	L
13/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-4	0-8	7	3	L
30/05	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	5-3	8	2	W

Mindil Aces

LWWWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
22/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-0	12	0	W
18/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
14/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-2	9	1	W
01/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	11-0	10	0	W
26/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
19/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
03/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-1	7	0	W
24/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	6-1	3	1	W
19/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Port Darwin FC vs Mindil Aces?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mindil Aces win (67%). Probabilities: Port Darwin FC 16%, draw 16%, Mindil Aces 67%.

How many goals are expected in Port Darwin FC vs Mindil Aces?

The model expects 4.47 goals (Port Darwin FC 1.49 · Mindil Aces 2.98), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Port Darwin FC vs Mindil Aces?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.