Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 22/08, 12:30
Prediction: Port Darwin FC vs Hellenic AC
Team pages: Port Darwin FC · Hellenic AC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.24Total
Port Darwin FC2.82
Hellenic AC1.42
1X2
Port Darwin FC
Draw
Hellenic AC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Port Darwin FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Hellenic AC
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Port Darwin FC
3–2–1
Hellenic AC
(6 last)
- Hellenic AC2-6Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC1-0Hellenic AC
- Port Darwin FC1-1Hellenic AC
- Hellenic AC1-1Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC2-0Hellenic AC
- Port Darwin FC1-5Hellenic AC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Port Darwin FC 1515 · Hellenic AC 1440
| Port Darwin FC | Draw | Hellenic AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 18% | 17% |
| Market | 66% | 18% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.24 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Port Darwin FC (rating 1515 vs 1440).
- H2H favours Port Darwin FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Port Darwin FC | Hellenic AC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.5 / 3.1 | 1.2 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.6 | 1.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Port Darwin FC 3–2–1 Hellenic AC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 2-6 HT 0-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 21/03/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Hellenic AC |
| 29/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hellenic AC |
| 21/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 02/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hellenic AC |
| 30/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-5 HT 1-4 | Hellenic AC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 81 | 19 | 52 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 69 | 19 | 40 |
| 3 | Darwin Olympic | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 36 | 34 |
| 4 | Port Darwin FC | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 61 | 41 | 34 |
| 5 | Darwin Hearts | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 42 | 33 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 47 | 18 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 19 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 85 | 16 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 56 | 15 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 94 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Port Darwin FC | Hellenic AC |
|---|---|---|
| Garuda FC | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-4 D | 1-2 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 10-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Mindil Aces | 0-8 L | 1-4 L |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-6 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Port Darwin FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 10-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-2 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
Hellenic AC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 23/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Port Darwin FC vs Hellenic AC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Port Darwin FC win (66%). Probabilities: Port Darwin FC 66%, draw 18%, Hellenic AC 16%.
How many goals are expected in Port Darwin FC vs Hellenic AC?
The model expects 4.24 goals (Port Darwin FC 2.82 · Hellenic AC 1.42), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Port Darwin FC vs Hellenic AC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.